Bitcoin futures analysis shows a bullish perspective above 103,920 and a bearish outlook below 103,450. Over the past 3.5 days, Bitcoin has been within a narrow range, indicating a short-term balance. The analysis employs tradeCompass methodology to assist traders in identifying key levels.

As of May 16, 2025, Bitcoin futures are in a four-day consolidation phase. The value area high (VAH) stands at 104,360, while the value area low (VAL) is at 103,550, with a volume-weighted average price (VWAP) from May 15 recorded at 103,920. The point of control (POC) is slightly below the VWAP, pointing out essential price points for Bitcoin today.

The 103,920 mark is pivotal for market sentiment; surpassing it leans towards bullishness, whereas falling below 103,450 indicates bearishness. The bullish range is from 103,920 to 103,950, and the bearish trigger falls below 103,450.

Bullish targets include 104,590, 105,000, and 106,165, with the aspiration of new all-time highs. Bearish aims are set at 103,185, 102,700, and reaching the significant 100,000 mark. Caution is advised in a high-inertia market, with traders urged to manage risks, especially over the weekend with CME Bitcoin futures.

TradeCompass offers decision support, providing thresholds based on volume profile and order flow data, highlighting the need for market understanding to enhance trade execution. Awareness of the 103,920 pivot zone remains vital and should be supported by sound trade management strategies.

Given the tight price activity and limited movement over recent days, what we’re seeing is a market that’s hesitating—one that’s pausing, but not yet deciding. When Bitcoin futures hover persistently inside a narrow band, oscillating without clear conviction, that usually means liquidity is being built up before a more forceful move takes hold, and those who act too soon often take on more risk than reward. The area between 103,920 and 103,450 becomes informative—not for how flat it seems, but for the weight it now carries.

What we’ve observed from Wednesday through Friday is a textbook compression. The fact that price rejected ventures above 104,360 or beneath 103,550 several times tells us that the market’s current perceived fair value is living somewhere between those two markers, with VWAP serving as a reference anchor right now. Arguably, that VWAP snapshot from May 15—103,920—isn’t just another number floating on a chart; it’s been acting as a dividing line for directional probability.

We use consolidation like this not to wait idly but to prepare. When movement is restricted and volume data tightens, the immediate course of action is risk alignment—tighten stops, scale entries, and note that aggressive trades without proper structure can be punished quickly, especially when futures roll or major exchanges are about to close for the weekend. Since our side of the table uses volume-profile-based distinctions, confidence comes from being on the right side of those zones, not trying to predict the next lurk or sweep.

Above 103,920, buyers have a clearer playbook. The projected levels at 104,590 through to just past 106,000 are not arbitrary—they’re calculated targets based on previous absorption zones and the absence of strong resistance once the initial ceiling is broken. Moves towards those areas can come rapidly, particularly if market makers pull resting offers into low liquidity gaps. That’s why sustained closes above 103,950—with support from expanding volume and controllable delta—are what we look out for.

Below 103,450, the market shifts footing. The region around 103,185 and 102,700 exposes earlier signposts of mispricing and failed support attempts. These are levels where weak longs tend to exit, and unhedged positions unravel. Should the price push into this corridor with velocity, the round figure of 100,000 acts as an emotional threshold—to not factor that into positioning would be negligent. Planning for such scenarios isn’t just prudent—it’s required.

Givens, such as the point of control now sitting marginally under VWAP, help define our execution bias. This shows that most traded volume hasn’t caught up to the current midpoint of activity, which, loosely translated, means rotational behaviour is still dominant. No single side has managed to overwhelm the auction so far, making fast, clean impulsive moves rare—until they are not.

In settings like this, we don’t aim for constant action. Rather, we take snapshots of volume distributions, monitor where large block orders cluster, and prepare for zones of imbalance to resolve. Because once either side takes initiative, moves could come brutally fast. When that happens, it’s not a time to understand–it’s a time to act with what you’ve already understood.