Insights 
VT 
Gold prices fell over 0.50% on Monday, trading at $3,336 due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on European Union goods. Thin trading was noted because of market closures in the UK and US for holidays.
Trump’s statement on delaying the duties until July 9 led to improved market sentiment, causing pressure on gold despite previous weekly gains of over 4.86%, marking the highest since early April. On Friday, gold prices rose as Trump exerted pressure on Apple to produce iPhones in the US, threatening significant tariffs.
Gold Price Trends Amid Changing Demand
Gold prices are expected to continue rising, supported by data showing China’s gold imports via Hong Kong doubled in April from March. Geopolitical tensions remain high, with Russia’s ongoing attacks on Ukraine prompting reactions from Trump.
The US economic calendar includes key releases such as Durable Goods Orders, FOMC meeting minutes, GDP estimate, and the Core PCE Price Index. Concerns over the US fiscal deficit, following Moody’s debt rating downgrade, contribute to a positive outlook for gold.
Technical analysis indicates that if gold holds above $3,300, it may test or exceed previous highs. Conversely, a drop below $3,300 could lead to further declines towards recent lows.
The sharp dip in gold on Monday, losing just over 0.50% and settling around $3,336, reflects a short-term shift in sentiment tied to macro headlines. Relief stemming from tariff delays on EU goods reset the broader risk appetite, easing the urgency for safe-haven positioning. This pullback, as sharp as it may seem, sits within a backdrop where gold had previously gained 4.86%—its strongest weekly expansion in over a month. When viewed in context, we see Monday’s movement not as a reversal, but a pause.
Thin liquidity contributed to choppy price behaviour, given that both UK and US markets were offline. Under such conditions, any headline can cause outsized moves, and that’s exactly what we observed. Traders would be remiss not to account for low-volume distortions when assessing these price levels.
Influence Of US Trade Policy And Geopolitical Tensions
What pushed sentiment away from safety was a policy adjustment from Washington. By shifting a tariff deadline to July, Trump effectively injected optimism into the short-term outlook for global trade. The reaction? Pressure on non-yielding assets, and gold was first to feel it. Nevertheless, it’s clear this was not from a change in fundamentals, but repositioning in light of new headlines.
Further support for bullion remains under the surface. April’s surge in Chinese demand, as evidenced by the doubling of imports via Hong Kong, shows end-user interest. That’s not something easily dismissed. When consumption from a major importer rises sharply, it lays the groundwork for medium-term support—even if speculative flows waver in the interim.
Overlaying this is the wider context of geopolitics. Russia’s continued military aggression has sustained tension across markets. Responses from the US, led again by Trump, have introduced further uncertainty. This helps frame the longer-term bid in gold, particularly when paired with global concerns around fiscal quality. Take the debt rating revision from Moody’s, for instance—this points to underlying strain in the US’s financial outlook. From our perspective, persistent worries over widening deficits are one of the few fundamentals that consistently favour higher gold in the months ahead.
Attention now turns to the US economic docket. Data points to watch over the coming days include orders for durable goods, preliminary GDP estimates, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge in the Core PCE, and insights from the FOMC’s most recent meeting minutes. Each of these can tilt rate expectations, shift dollar strength, and, by extension, adjust the directional bias for metals. We’ll review these one-by-one as they come.
From a purely technical viewpoint, the $3,300 support zone has re-affirmed its relevance. If pricing remains buoyant above this level, we anticipate renewed attempts to climb toward April peaks. But if prices falter under this threshold, recent pullbacks near $3,260 may act as magnets in the coming sessions. The market’s balance rests on how positioning adjusts around this pivot region.
Positioning strategies should remain nimble. The reaction function here is incredibly sensitive to any shift in rate expectations or geopolitical rhetoric. Headline risk isn’t diminishing; if anything, it’s fragmenting across more fronts. That’s why technical limits need to be matched with a clear reading of macro drivers—not just in isolation, but as fluid.
We continue to monitor flows and sentiment changes in both options and futures structures. Early signs suggest a build-up in protection strategies, rather than directional bets. That tells us market participants remain alert but unconvinced of trend extension, for now.
