Insights 
VT 
The US Dollar Index continued its downward trend, hovering around 99.30. Key events include the FOMC meeting, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, and the EIA’s crude oil inventories report.
EUR/USD moved up to the 1.1370 area, supported by the US Dollar’s weakening. The focus will be on Germany’s Factory Orders and the HCOB Construction PMI for Germany and the euro area.
Gbp Usd Gains Amid Dollar Weakness
GBP/USD made gains, briefly surpassing the 1.3400 level. The upcoming data includes the S&P Global Construction PMI.
USD/JPY decreased to the 142.30 zone due to ongoing selling pressure on the US Dollar. The Jibun Bank Services PMI is awaited.
AUD/USD approached 0.6500, reaching new yearly highs. Attention shifts to the Ai Group Industry Index in Australia.
WTI oil prices rebounded, nearing the $60.00 mark per barrel. Gold prices rose to new two-week highs above $3,400 per ounce, while Silver reclaimed levels beyond $33.00 per ounce.
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Where we currently stand is not surprising—an overarching weakness in the dollar has led to a shift across several major currency pairs. The US Dollar Index continues its decline, currently sitting near 99.30. This sustained move lower reflects a decreased appetite for dollar-denominated assets, as speculators weigh up the Federal Reserve’s stance ahead of the FOMC meeting. Recent softness in economic data does little to support expectations of longer-term rates holding firm. With inflation appearing to slow, and forward-looking indicators like mortgage applications falling again, the greenback lacks near-term drivers.
In this context, the euro has naturally benefited. With EUR/USD stepping towards the 1.1370s, supported by broader dollar softness rather than fresh euro strength, the market will quickly turn to incoming data from Germany. Factory Orders should give insight into industrial resilience, and the HCOB Construction PMI will offer clues about broader demand conditions. While the eurozone faces its own pressures, particularly from fragmented manufacturing output, traders must recognise that stabilising growth—even small—can attract flows when yield differentials narrow.
Usd Jpy And Commodity Movements
Sterling has also gained ground, if only briefly pushing above 1.3400. This move accompanies a slightly more hawkish tone from domestic policymakers, underpinned by resilient services inflation. While the pound’s advance appears modest in broader terms, those watching short-dated positioning should remain alert for volatility originating from S&P Global’s Construction PMI print. A better-than-expected outcome may trigger sharp, but limited, intraday reactions. It’s worth noting that thin summer liquidity tends to extend short-run moves beyond what would typically be expected.
USD/JPY meanwhile dropped to the 142.30 area. As yield spreads compress and US real yields edge downward, the yen finds itself with fewer headwinds. Although Japanese services data remains unconvincing overall, price action appears led more by flows out of dollar positions than strong conviction in the yen itself. For those positioned in carry or short-volatility trades, smaller macro releases such as the Jibun Services PMI may start influencing direction more noticeably as major announcements are in short supply.
Further along the spectrum, AUD/USD touched the 0.6500 mark, logging new highs on the year. Commodity-linked currencies often benefit from global growth optimism, and Australia’s exposure to Chinese demand can occasionally give the Aussie an edge when stimulus chatter picks up. The Ai Group Industry Index will help gauge whether domestic momentum is sufficient to sustain a higher range. Choppy trade before that release, especially around Asian open, should be expected.
Commodities tell their own story. WTI crude has snapped higher, nearing $60 per barrel. This bounce comes after several weeks of rangebound price action and may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the EIA’s inventories report. If draws extend further, energy prices could test resistance levels, prompting a reassessment of break-even inflation expectations.
Gold has surged above $3,400 per ounce, reaching its highest levels in two weeks. The rise comes amid continued dollar weakness and lower real rates, both of which support precious metals, especially where inflation data is softening but remains elevated enough to deter aggressive easing. Silver has pushed past $33.00 again, suggesting buying interest across the metals complex, possibly from funds rotating out of currency markets into hard assets.
In the short term, we’re likely to continue reacting to policy signals, second-tier economic prints, and shifts in liquidity preferences. Rapid moves over the next few weeks could turn on relatively minor data, particularly in low-volume trading windows. Stretched positioning should be managed tightly.
