Insights 
VT 
The market shows a cautious sentiment at the start of June trading. There are 36 days remaining before Trump’s trade deal deadline, with ongoing court battles over reciprocal tariffs.
The dollar faced challenges yesterday, dipping at the start of the new month but stabilising slightly today. Its position remains tense even as dollar sellers ease off. USD/JPY stands near 143.00, with earlier lows of 142.36 threatening short-term support.
Current Dollar Status
Last week’s failure to maintain levels above 145.00 resulted in consecutive declines, providing a current momentary respite.
The EUR/USD pair is down 0.2% but remains above 1.1400. GBP/USD has similarly decreased by 0.2%, staying above 1.3500.
The antipodean currencies face greater losses today. AUD/USD has dropped 0.5% to 0.6457, unable to surpass the 0.6500 mark once again.
Attention is also shifting towards upcoming economic data, with the US jobs report releasing on Friday and the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.
This summary outlines a period of restraint and cooling sentiment as markets move into June. Traders seem to be pulling back slightly ahead of large events, while key currency pairs continue to drift within known boundaries. Though pressure persists, outright volatility has been limited for now.
Given the setting, there’s a natural sense of hesitation building across key assets. The looming deadline mentioned by Trump, now little more than a month away, adds a layer of unease to already loaded trading desks. At the same time, legal tensions surrounding tariff announcements are raising questions about the follow-through of any near-term policy moves. None of this has generated panic, but all of it sits on the edge of pricing models used to assess short-term direction.
Market Challenges and Expectations
The greenback’s decline on the opening day of June marked the latest bout of uncertainty. That it rebounded slightly today implies there’s no one-sided conviction—just yet. Still, we’ve noticed broad selling has slowed, which points toward cautious recalibration rather than renewed interest. In USD/JPY, for instance, the inability to build on previous strength and the return towards 143.00 suggests that bullish positions are thinning. The earlier slip to 142.36 remains unresolved from a support perspective. It wouldn’t take much more pressure to see that level breached, especially with external events still pending.
After repeated attempts, the failure to hold the 145.00 level last week has now established that region as difficult to reclaim. From our view, the drop that followed was more than just a pause—it served to reframe the wider range short-term speculators should prepare for. Current stability isn’t something to depend on. It is simply a quieter pause ahead of events expected later in the week.
For EUR/USD, the small decline of 0.2% doesn’t move it outside its expected trading zone. The pair continues to hover above 1.1400, comfortably for now, but with less upward thrust than we previously observed. Similarly, GBP/USD holds above 1.3500, though recent softness hints that momentum has worn away. Bigger moves may be lying dormant, waiting for better narrative fuel.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars have felt more persistent selling. In particular, AUD/USD’s 0.5% fall to 0.6457 reinforces an established ceiling at 0.6500 that has held up multiple times. Each test makes that barrier harder to dismantle. Those fed up with failed upside attempts may now be shifting their bias further down.
This week has a packed schedule. With Friday’s job data release from the US expected to draw sharp focus, and Thursday’s policy decision from the ECB positioned to challenge past assumptions, it’s unlikely this calm will stretch much longer. Bond markets are already showing some twitchiness, a hint at how pricing models are being adjusted under the hood.
Should employment data near expectations, we may see another rejig in implied volatility. Meanwhile, the central bank’s positioning will test how much further they are willing to stretch current inflation frameworks. Depending on how both institutions respond—one on labour slack, the other on price cycles—there could be clearer directional guidance by early next week.
For now, patience pays. Front-loading exposure in this zone risks backfiring, since market reactions may be sharper than usual if consensus is challenged. Our preference remains reducing leverage while awaiting better timing cues. The data will do the talking.
