The NZDUSD has been climbing after sellers were unable to maintain a break below the 0.5825 swing area and the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. From the reversal of the dip yesterday, buyers have regained control, driving the pair above key technical levels.

The pair has surpassed several resistance points, including the 200-day moving average at 0.5883. Additional resistance levels include the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages at 0.5907 and 0.5835, respectively. The current upward momentum is targeting the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart around 0.5949.

Potential Reach to 06000 and Beyond

A move past 0.5949 could lead to a push towards the next major resistance area near 0.6000. Beyond that, the extremes for 2025 lie between 0.6018 and 0.6028.

Yesterday and earlier today, sellers attempted to take control, but the trend is currently favouring buyers. The key technical levels for resistance and support are 0.59494, 0.6000, 0.6018 to 0.6028, and 0.5935, 0.5907, 0.5883, and 0.58525, respectively. The market sentiment appears to be shifting back towards buyers after sellers were unable to capitalise.

What we’ve just observed in the NZDUSD is a short-term repricing after an earlier push lower failed to gather the required momentum to sustain further declines. The inability of sellers to remain below the 0.5825 level – which coincides with the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour timeframe – served as a signal that downside conviction was weakening. When that level held, we started to see a rebound gather pace.

Since then, we’ve seen the move kick through layers of resistance, initially the 200-day moving average – a longer-term indication – at 0.5883, followed by swift gains that cleared both the 100-hour and 200-hour markers. These short-term averages tend to reflect more reactive sentiment and provide a solid gauge of intraday positioning. Going through those suggests that the short-term tone has turned favourable for bullish action.

Direction and Support Levels

Now the focus sits at around 0.5949, which aligns with the 100-bar average on the 4-hour chart. Reaching and holding above that level would indicate that recent buying isn’t just a corrective bounce but something with deeper traction. Assuming buying can sustain at or beyond that mark, we could see continued extension towards 0.6000. Once that’s cleared, there’s not much resistance until the range between 0.6018 to 0.6028 comes back into play – a structure previously tested and rejected, representing a proper battle line if reached again.

From a directional bias standpoint, it’s clear: buyers have taken the reins, and price action is rewarding those aligned with that short-term narrative. Reactions at around 0.5949 and then again towards the psychological 0.6000 zone may offer insight into how committed this move is.

Support levels aren’t just markers where price might pause; they are where behaviour shifts can occur if buyers step away. We’ve got these layered between 0.5935, 0.5907, and 0.5883, with more depth back down at 0.58525. Should any sharp moves lower appear, we’d expect some positioning reset within those bands in the near term.

Miller’s commentary, which formed part of the original analysis, highlighted the failed breakout of the downside and noted how that set off a mechanical unwind from short positions. That seems to be evident in the way price has moved quite cleanly through each resistance level. Meanwhile, Powell acknowledged the upward tilt in momentum and made it especially clear that we’re now dealing with a market that no longer sees value in selling rallies – at least for now.

In this sort of setup, what matters most is how the price responds at resistance markers, especially after such a directional impulse. If there’s a clear stall or hesitation around 0.5949 to 0.6000, that may hint at a near-term exhaustion, but unless price gives up the areas below 0.5883 and 0.58525, the broader setup still prefers strength.

From where we sit, price is respecting structure well. We should act with the chart in front of us, and given recent buying strength, attempts to counter that might need clearer breakdowns before becoming viable. It’s not about predicting turns, but rather responding to where commitment holds.

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