Insights 
VT 
Pound Sterling shows a modest increase, with no major developments over the weekend and no data releases on the current day. The market has mostly dismissed the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its June 19 decision, with only minor survey reports expected this week.
The pound traded just under 1.36 in quiet overnight trading, its highest point since early 2022. Minor resistance is observed at 1.3595, potentially limiting the pound in the short term, although the strong upward trend is viewed as steady.
Technical Momentum
Oscillators across different time frames suggest limited scope for counter-trend corrections, with firm support on minor dips. Key support levels are at 1.3545/50, while resistance is at 1.3595/00, moving up to 1.3740/50.
What we’re seeing here is a steady climb in Sterling’s value, particularly in the absence of high-impact data or political movement over the weekend. Traders shrugged off immediate prospects of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England, likely responding instead to longer-term inflation progress and economic resilience that have strengthened Sterling’s appeal.
Sterling’s quiet rise to just below 1.36 represents the highest value since the early months of 2022. That kind of a return to historical levels, especially in relatively muted trading conditions, signals market confidence in its directional bias. However, we’re bumping up against some short-term resistance at around 1.3595, a level where price action has started to pause. It’s not unusual to see slight hesitation near prior highs, especially when momentum indicators are showing reduced appetite for a broad retracement.
In practical terms, we’re currently observing a shallow pullback emphasis, rather than any kind of deep unwinding. Support on the dips has been repeatedly tested and found to hold around the 1.3545–1.3550 region, which gives a reference for gauging how far any selling may push prices. If that floor remains firm in further tests, there’s little reason to suspect a reversal is close.
Market Structure
The upward trend also finds confirmation in the technical momentum studies. Oscillators aren’t screaming overextension yet, but they suggest limited room for meaningful pullbacks in the very near term. That means any softness is likely to be brief and without broader consequences—at least for now. If the price were to break through the 1.3600 resistance, that could open the door towards the next band higher, roughly projected around 1.3740–1.3750.
From a market structure point of view, the clean layering of support and resistance marks a directional profile that’s being respected by participants. In our position, that means one should maintain directional bias until proven otherwise. Neutral events like survey data due in the days ahead may not carry the weight to knock this pattern off course in isolation.
What’s particularly notable now is the balance between expected volatility and actual price movement. The lack of dramatic swings tells us participants are acting in anticipation, not in reaction. The shift to pricing out the rate cut has already been largely absorbed. Unless forecasts are materially disrupted, this may keep the playing field narrow—though that does lend itself to breakout potential the closer we get to the June decision.
As it stands, our attention remains on momentum sustainability. We should treat movements below 1.3545 with caution, as that would begin to destabilise the controlled narrative that’s guided the pound since late May. Until then, a bias towards continued stability with upside skew seems to have a defensible footing.
