{"id":70031,"date":"2026-10-23T02:51:19","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T02:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rising-us-deficits-stoke-inflation-fears-lifting-treasury-yields-and-backing-gold-demand\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T02:51:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T02:51:19","slug":"rising-us-deficits-stoke-inflation-fears-lifting-treasury-yields-and-backing-gold-demand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rising-us-deficits-stoke-inflation-fears-lifting-treasury-yields-and-backing-gold-demand\/","title":{"rendered":"Artan ABD B\u00fct\u00e7e A\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 Enflasyon Endi\u015felerini K\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor; Hazine Tahvili Faizleri Y\u00fckselirken Alt\u0131na Talep G\u00fc\u00e7leniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u00f6l\u00fcm, kal\u0131c\u0131 federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 ve artan ulusal borcu enflasyon riski ile de\u011ferli metallere destek unsuru olarak ili\u015fkilendiriyor; piyasalar\u0131n yava\u015f biriken mali bask\u0131y\u0131, dolar\u0131n itibar\u0131n\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bor\u00e7lanma kapasitesine duyulan g\u00fcveni etkilemeye ba\u015flayana kadar g\u00f6rmezden gelebilece\u011fini savunuyor. \u0130ki Partili Politika Merkezi\u2019nin (Bipartisan Policy Center) \u201cbelirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha y\u00fcksek federal bor\u00e7\u201d beklentilerinin ABD\u2019nin kredi de\u011ferlili\u011fini zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131yor; ard\u0131ndan Hazine tahvillerine (Treasuries) talebin yumu\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek faizlere (getirilere) d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Sunucu, tahvil getirilerinin en son 2001\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Mali disiplin bozulmas\u0131n\u0131 iki partili bir olgu olarak da \u00e7er\u00e7eveliyor; Calvin Coolidge\u2019den bu yana her ba\u015fkan\u0131n g\u00f6revi devrald\u0131\u011f\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek ulusal bor\u00e7la g\u00f6revden ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n\n

Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fcm, a\u00e7\u0131k finansman\u0131n\u0131n daha fazla bor\u00e7lanmaya ve borcun parasalla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na (monetizasyon) yol a\u00e7arak; sava\u015f gibi unsurlarla birlikte fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve zaman i\u00e7inde hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kanal\u0131 \u00f6zetliyor. %2 hedefi \u00fczerinden, dolar\u0131n be\u015f y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10, on y\u0131lda %20 sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc kaybedece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyerek bunu \u201cenflasyon vergisi\u201d olarak nitelendiriyor. Ard\u0131ndan \u201cdebasement trade\u201di (paran\u0131n de\u011fersizle\u015fmesi temas\u0131) somut varl\u0131klara ba\u011fl\u0131yor; \u00c7in\u2019in dolar maruziyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6rnek veriyor ve mali bask\u0131lar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre yava\u015f birikip ko\u015fullar\u0131n bir anda sertle\u015febilece\u011fi fikriyle bitiriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Y\u00fckselen Getirilere ve Para Birimi De\u011fersizle\u015fmesine Konumlanma<\/h3>\n\n

Federal bor\u00e7lanma h\u0131zla artarken, faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 kendimizi konumland\u0131rmam\u0131z gerekiyor. ABD ulusal borcu 36 trilyon dolar\u0131 a\u015farken ve y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klar 1,8 trilyon dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, tahvil getirileri yap\u0131sal olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Zay\u0131flayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 talebine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, uzun vade getiri (long yield) stratejilerini veya uzun vadeli devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n

Para birimi de\u011fersizle\u015fmesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda de\u011ferli metallerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden uzun pozisyon maruziyeti olu\u015fturmal\u0131y\u0131z. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131, yabanc\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin rezervlerini k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ons ba\u015f\u0131na 2.700 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki rekor seviyelerin \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131maya son d\u00f6nemde destek oldu. Alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m spread stratejileri kullanmak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskimizi s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlarken bu ivmeden pay almam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca d\u00f6viz pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da hedge etmeliyiz; zira kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, zaman i\u00e7inde dolar\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, uzun s\u00fcreli mali a\u00e7\u0131klar h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri borcu parasalla\u015ft\u0131rmaya zorlar; yabanc\u0131 kredit\u00f6rler daha y\u00fcksek risk primi talep etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 para biriminde zay\u0131flamaya yol a\u00e7ar. Dolar d\u0131\u015f\u0131 para birimlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 veya emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 varl\u0131klarda pozisyon almak, itibari (fiat) paraya y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri yast\u0131klar.<\/p>\n\n

Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6netme ve Portf\u00f6yleri Koruma<\/h3>\n\n

Piyasa kaymalar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman \u00f6nce kademeli ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir, ard\u0131ndan beklenmedik \u015fekilde h\u0131zlan\u0131r; ge\u00e7mi\u015f bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7e krizleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen Hazine piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 buna benzer. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca faiz ve emtia t\u00fcrevlerinde, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) oynakl\u0131k kontratlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak kuyruk riskine (tail-risk) kar\u015f\u0131 koruma ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. S\u0131k\u0131 risk kontrollerini \u015fimdiden tesis etmek, ani piyasa yeniden fiyatlamalar\u0131 ya\u015fanmadan \u00f6nce korumada kalmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de bor\u00e7 ve a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; piyasa \u015fimdilik g\u00f6rmezden gelse de dolar itibar\u0131 ve tahvil talebi sars\u0131labilir. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm: long yield hedge, alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131, FX korumas\u0131 ve tail-risk oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":70030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t