{"id":70022,"date":"2026-10-23T01:57:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T01:57:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-slides-to-month-low-near-157-as-risk-off-boosts-yen-and-trims-yield-gap\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T01:57:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T01:57:07","slug":"usd-jpy-slides-to-month-low-near-157-as-risk-off-boosts-yen-and-trims-yield-gap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-slides-to-month-low-near-157-as-risk-off-boosts-yen-and-trims-yield-gap\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi ve getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltmas\u0131yla 157 civar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,65 gerileyerek son bir ay\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelik tedirginli\u011fin k\u00fcresel hisselerde i\u015ftah\u0131 so\u011futmas\u0131 Japon Yeni\u2019ne talebi art\u0131rd\u0131. Parite, ABD Dolar\u0131 toparlan\u0131p yatay seyrederken 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 157 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar Endeksi, \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olan 101,45\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 101,75 yak\u0131n\u0131ndayd\u0131; riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnde Yen, para birimleri genelinde belirgin \u015fekilde pozitif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131 da hareketi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek getirileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve ABD\u2013Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil faizi %5,04 civar\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle seyrederken; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili faizi %2,86 yak\u0131n\u0131nda ve %0,50 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. Piyasalar h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015f bir faiz fark\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yak\u0131ndan izlemeyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika faizini, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 29\u201330 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %1,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD\u2019de ise Fed\u2019in gelecek hafta faizleri sabit b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131 genel kabul g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m da yakla\u015f\u0131k %89 olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlan\u0131yor; bankan\u0131n %2 enflasyon hedefi g\u00fcndemdeki yerini koruyor.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130\u015flem \u00d6nerileri ve Volatilite Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin sert %0,65\u2019lik g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 157 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 veya USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk-reversal stratejileri almak, teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki dalgalanman\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman Yen giri\u015flerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in maliyet etkin bir yol sunar. Tarihsel olarak, ani riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f rejimlerinde carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi paritede g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde birden fazla \u201cfigure\u201d (birka\u00e7 yenlik) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Son geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin %5,04 ve Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n %2,86 oldu\u011fu ortamda 218 baz puanl\u0131k fark, k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131nda belirgin negatif ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti (negative carry) yaratmaya devam ediyor. Bu nedenle, korunmas\u0131z (hedgesiz) spot uzun Yen pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz; y\u00fcksek faiz fark\u0131 daha uzun vadede Ye\u015filback\u2019i elde tutmay\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Bunun yerine, prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yak\u0131n vadeli Yen g\u00fcc\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in bear put spread stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u00c7apraz Varl\u0131k Hedging<\/h3>\n\n

BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 29\u201330 Ekim\u2019de planlanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in gelecek hafta faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak olmas\u0131yla, vadesi en yak\u0131n opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen straddle veya strangle gibi uzun volatilite stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %89 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankas\u0131 tonunda beklenmedik bir de\u011fi\u015fim patlay\u0131c\u0131 nitelikte k\u0131r\u0131lma hareketlerini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira g\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi yak\u0131n zamanda g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131yla tek seansta %1 geriledi. Teknoloji hisselerindeki geri \u00e7ekilme do\u011frudan Yen\u2019e sermaye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, d\u00f6viz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlarla birlikte hisse endeksi put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00e7apraz varl\u0131k korunmas\u0131 (hedge) olu\u015fturur. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar olan d\u00f6nemde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kald\u0131ra\u00e7 seviyesinin ola\u011fan\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f Yen\u2019i parlat\u0131yor: USD\/JPY %0,65 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 157\u2019ye indi. Tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131 faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltt\u0131. BoJ sabit, Fed sabit beklentisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; opsiyonlarda volatilite\/hedge stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":70021,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t