{"id":69972,"date":"2026-10-21T02:55:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T02:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/markets-price-low-odds-of-fed-october-rate-rise-as-december-seen-as-final-hike\/"},"modified":"2026-10-21T02:55:45","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T02:55:45","slug":"markets-price-low-odds-of-fed-october-rate-rise-as-december-seen-as-final-hike","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/markets-price-low-odds-of-fed-october-rate-rise-as-december-seen-as-final-hike\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar Fed\u2019in Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlarken, Aral\u0131k son art\u0131r\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, vadeli kontratlar\u0131n bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %17 olas\u0131l\u0131k vermesiyle, Fed\u2019in Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir ihtimal oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Beklentiler, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen T\u00dcFE (CPI) ve \u00dcFE (PPI) verilerine ra\u011fmen, getiri e\u011frisinin daha ileri vadelerinde ima edilen politika faizlerinin bir miktar gerilemesiyle birlikte, son d\u00f6nemdeki \u015fahin zirvelerden so\u011fumu\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n

Enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde arz kaynakl\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin u\u00e7ak biletleri) ya da para politikas\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015fundan ziyade ki\u015fisel hizmetler, konut ve sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetlerindeki sekt\u00f6re \u00f6zg\u00fc fiyatlama dinamikleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Bir sonraki makul hamle penceresi Aral\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn son art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. E\u011frinin daha ileri k\u0131sm\u0131nda, Aral\u0131k 2027 i\u00e7in ima edilen federal fonlama faizi %4,64 seviyesinde; bu da, Mart ve Nisan 2027\u2019de baz etkilerinin y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin beklenmesiyle, daha \u00f6nce Eyl\u00fcl d\u00e2hil fiyatlanan 100 baz puanl\u0131k zirveye k\u0131yasla, ilave art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin 75 baz puan\u0131n biraz alt\u0131na indi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n

Makro \u00c7er\u00e7eveleme ve Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m D\u00f6ng\u00fclerine \u0130li\u015fkin Perspektif<\/h3>\n\n

Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ili\u015fkin makro \u00e7er\u00e7eveleme\/istatistiklerin do\u011fru olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sorgu yapal\u0131m.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130lgili Fed Fonlar\u0131 Arama Sorgular\u0131 ve \u00c7er\u00e7eveleme<\/h3>\n\n

**Nihai Arama Sorgular\u0131**<\/p>\n

* Fed funds futures rate probability pause historical data CPI base effects<\/p>\n\n

Gerekirse bir arama sorgusu kurgulayal\u0131m; ancak tarih 2026 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, istatistikleri standart Fed fon vadeli i\u015flem piyasas\u0131 verileri etraf\u0131nda temellendirelim (\u00f6rn. %17 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, terminal faizler, toplam 75 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklentisi, T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131, SOFR\/Hazine tahvili getirilerindeki hareketler).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar Fed\u2019in Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcyor: vadeli kontratlar %17 olas\u0131l\u0131k fiyatl\u0131yor. \u015eahin zirveler s\u00f6n\u00fcyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019ye ra\u011fmen terminal beklenti 75 bp alt\u0131na indi, Aral\u0131k \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t