Alt\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin tetikledi\u011fi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon risklerini yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tutmas\u0131 ve \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d beklentilerini peki\u015ftirmesiyle sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; XAU\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.123 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken %0,42 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. WTI, Husilerin Suudi enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemileri hedef alan yeni olaylar\u0131n arz kesintisi endi\u015felerini art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bir aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u015eubat sonundaki sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana enerji maliyetleri enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 bir girdisi oldu\u011fundan, piyasalar ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 teyakkuzda.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri beklentilerin \u00fczerinde gelerek, Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefi do\u011frultusunda y\u0131l bitmeden bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapabilece\u011fi tezini destekledi. Dolar\u2019daki geri \u00e7ekilme ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131: DXY 101,76 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken %0,23 geriledi (ge\u00e7en hafta 103\u2019e yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131); 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,08\u2019de bulunurken, ay ba\u015f\u0131nda %5,36 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyor; toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in %17, aral\u0131k i\u00e7in ise %92 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, 4.100-4.200 dolar band\u0131nda yatay seyrini koruyor; 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor. RSI d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 40\u2019larda, MACD pozitif. Diren\u00e7ler 4.200, 4.235, 4.321, 4.400 ve 4.517; destekler 4.100 ve ard\u0131ndan 4.000-3.950 band\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz kesintileri nedeniyle WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in enerji vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, petrol\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7 haneli seviyelerin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2022\u2019de varil ba\u015f\u0131na 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczeri) enerji piyasalar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetikler. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki tehditler daha geni\u015f piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan bask\u0131larken, enerji kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n destekli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n t\u00fcrevlerinde, fiyatlar kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece netle\u015fen 4.100-4.200 dolar s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda bant i\u015flemi (range-trading) stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. XAU\/USD\u2019nin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 4.123 dolar civar\u0131nda ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 4.321 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, teknik momentum bant i\u00e7i tepki hareketlerini hedefleyen k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 4.100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma olu\u015fursa, 3.950 destek taban\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelmek gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar\u0131n daha s\u0131cak gelen T\u00dcFE verisi sonras\u0131nda aral\u0131kta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %92 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,08 civar\u0131nda seyrederken tahvil getirisi opsiyonlar\u0131nda aktivitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 27-28 Ekim tarihli merkez bankas\u0131 politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 opsiyon stratejileri kurgulanabilir. Tahvil getirilerinin yeniden son d\u00f6nemdeki %5,36 zirvelerine y\u00f6nelmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde s\u0131k\u0131 risk limitlerinin korunmas\u0131 ani dalgalanmalar\u0131n y\u00f6netilmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi petrol\u00fc 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, enflasyon ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d endi\u015fesi alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. Dolar zay\u0131f, getiriler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. XAU\/USD 4.123\u2019te; 4.100-4.200 band\u0131 izleniyor. Opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t