{"id":69851,"date":"2026-10-19T03:57:29","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T03:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/us-import-prices-surge-as-tariffs-drive-cost-pass-through-and-complicate-fed-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T03:57:29","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T03:57:29","slug":"us-import-prices-surge-as-tariffs-drive-cost-pass-through-and-complicate-fed-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/us-import-prices-surge-as-tariffs-drive-cost-pass-through-and-complicate-fed-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019de ithalat fiyatlar\u0131, g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin maliyetlerin fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131yla sert y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD ithalat fiyatlar\u0131, vergiler uygulanmadan \u00f6nce yabanc\u0131 limanda \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen endekste eyl\u00fclde ayl\u0131k %1,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k %8,1 artt\u0131; bu, Temmuz 2022\u2019den bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f oldu. Yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k %0,7, y\u0131ll\u0131k %6 y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2022\u2019den beri en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131 ve ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen 12 ayl\u0131k seriyi uzatt\u0131. Geni\u015f dolar endeksinin bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re %0,7 daha zay\u0131f olmas\u0131, kur hareketlerinin 8,1 puanl\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n en fazla 0,7 puan\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayabildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; sepetin %8,9\u2019unu olu\u015fturan yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 %34,5 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 3 puanl\u0131k katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Veriler ayr\u0131ca, 2025\u2019e kadar 25 milyon sevkiyat kayd\u0131n\u0131 inceleyen Kiel Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tarife maliyetlerinin %96\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini; A\u011fustos\u2019ta tahsil edilen tarifelerin ithalat de\u011ferinin %7,1\u2019ine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (Ocak 2025\u2019te %2,3) ve Ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana toplam 314,8 milyar dolarl\u0131k br\u00fct g\u00fcmr\u00fck geliri elde edildi\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n\n

Maliyet aktar\u0131m\u0131 t\u00fcketici enflasyonunda e\u015fit da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131yor. T\u00dcFE\u2019de benzin eyl\u00fclde %9,1, y\u0131ll\u0131k %34,2 artt\u0131; bu oran, ithal yak\u0131ttaki %34,5\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa yak\u0131n. Ancak mallarda farklar daha belirgin: oyuncaklar, r\u0131ht\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndaki %3\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 %6,6 y\u00fckselirken; giyim %1,3\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 %3,4 artt\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 oyuncak T\u00dcFE\u2019si %4,2 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu, serinin 1980\u2019de ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f oldu. \u00dcretici fiyat g\u00f6stergeleri de bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor: nihai talep i\u00e7in \u00dcFE mal kalemi y\u0131ll\u0131k %9,8 artarken, baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck kalemler geride kal\u0131yor: ikinci el ara\u00e7lar %-1,5, yeni ara\u00e7lar %0,6. Fed 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faizi %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti; piyasada bir art\u0131\u015f daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %44\u2019ten %16\u2019ya geriledi. Hanehalk\u0131 \u00fczerindeki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma belirgin: tasarruf oran\u0131 a\u011fustosta %4,1, ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,0 artarken T\u00dcFE %3,7; Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) g\u00fcven endeksi 46,3, mevcut ko\u015fullar endeksi 44,7 seviyesinde ve bir ayda %12 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bir y\u0131l sonras\u0131 enflasyon beklentisi %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; \u015fubatta %3,4\u2019t\u00fc. Hukuki ve politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131 belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor: 20 \u015eubat\u2019ta Y\u00fcksek Mahkeme\u2019nin 6-3 karar\u0131 IEEPA kapsam\u0131ndaki vergileri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; 10%\u2019luk Section 122 tarifesi 24 \u015eubat-23 Temmuz d\u00f6neminde uyguland\u0131; 24 Temmuz\u2019dan itibaren 60 ekonomiye %10 veya %12,5\u2019lik Section 301 tarifeleri devreye girdi; ayr\u0131ca IEEPA tahsilatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 iadeler g\u00fcndemde: potansiyel olarak 166 milyar dolar iade edilebilir, 2 Ekim itibar\u0131yla 126 milyar dolar sertifikaland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Tarife Maliyetlerinde Kayma ve T\u00fcketici G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\n

Fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tedarik zincirleri boyunca aktar\u0131lma bi\u00e7iminde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; yabanc\u0131 ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar tarife maliyetlerini do\u011frudan yurti\u00e7i limanlara yans\u0131t\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck temel ihtiya\u00e7larda artan ithalat maliyetleri, hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n tasarrufunu azalt\u0131p al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, zorunlu olmayan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla so\u011fudu\u011fu zorlu bir ortama haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n

T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim odakl\u0131 perakende hisselerinde ve t\u00fcketim dayan\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerinde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel olarak, ki\u015fisel tasarruf oranlar\u0131 %4\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u2014 2022 sonundaki seviyelere benzer \u2014 iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar duraklarken girdi maliyetleri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. \u0130thal elektronik ve ev e\u015fyalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u015firketler, marjlardaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine daha a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n

Ticaret ve Para Politikas\u0131 Belirsizli\u011fi Ortam\u0131nda Stratejik T\u00fcrev Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n\n

Ayn\u0131 zamanda, kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak amac\u0131yla enerji ve sanayi metali vadeli i\u015flemlerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruyucu pozisyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekiyor. Ham petrol, sevkiyat aksamalar\u0131yla yukar\u0131 itilmi\u015fken, temel metallerde ithalat endeksleri de y\u00fckseliyor; hammadde maliyetlerinde k\u0131sa vadede belirgin bir gev\u015feme sinyali yok. Ticaret gerilimlerinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerdeki tarihsel emtia s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131, enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman geni\u015f hisse piyasalar\u0131ndan daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Faiz oran\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerinde ise 28 Ekim\u2019deki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Piyasalar halihaz\u0131rda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; ancak yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon g\u00f6stergeleri ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fmeyi zorunlu k\u0131labilir. K\u0131sa vadeli Hazine vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde opsiyon stratejileri, merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali vermesi halinde sert yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yakla\u015fan kritik takvim tarihleri etraf\u0131nda riskin dikkatle y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor. 6 Kas\u0131m\u2019da yeni istihdam verileri, hemen ard\u0131ndan t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergeleri ve 10 Kas\u0131m\u2019daki tarife muafiyeti son tarihleri g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Bu veri ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00f6ncesi pozisyonlanma, kas\u0131m sonundaki b\u00fcy\u00fck perakende bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6neminden \u00f6nce maruziyeti korumay\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 eyl\u00fclde Temmuz 2022\u2019den beri en h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; yak\u0131t ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyici. Tarifelerin %96\u2019s\u0131 i\u00e7eride kal\u0131rken t\u00fcketicide e\u015fitsiz art\u0131\u015f var. Fed belirsiz; tasarruf s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. T\u00fcrevde defansif\/emtia-opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69850,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t