Sterlin, Federal Rezerv Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u00fcn faizlere ili\u015fkin herhangi bir ileri y\u00f6nlendirme sunmamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckselirken, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) bir ad\u0131m gelebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc beklentiler de pariteyi destekledi. GBP\/USD 1,3350\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,61\u2019in \u00fczerinde art\u0131da tamamlad\u0131. Parite, genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fmeyle birlikte son d\u00f6nemdeki bant hareketini de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Daha yumu\u015fak bir Dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle birlikte geldi ve Fed\u2019in parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. GBP\/USD son iki g\u00fcnde %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi ve 1,3349 ile seans zirvesini g\u00f6rerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Hareket, hafta i\u00e7indeki y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 1,3135 civar\u0131ndan gelen iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131; spot fiyatlar\u0131 Avrupa erken i\u015flemlerinde \u201cayl\u0131k yeni zirve\u201d olarak nitelendirilen yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3325 b\u00f6lgesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Parite 1,3265 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m seviyesinin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara GBP\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumuna al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya uzun vadeli (long) vadeli i\u015flem stratejileriyle e\u015flik etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u015eahin bir \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile temkinli bir Federal Rezerv aras\u0131ndaki politika patikas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, Kas\u0131m\u2019a do\u011fru sterlinde y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel getirilerin geriledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde, birka\u00e7 g\u00fcne yay\u0131lan kal\u0131c\u0131 ralliler \u00e7o\u011fu zaman k\u0131sa vadeli bir sapmadan ziyade daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli bir trend de\u011fi\u015fiminin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n
Bu hareketten korunmas\u0131z kuyruk risk (tail risk) almadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,3450\u20131,3500 band\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread) kurgulanmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinin BoE\u2019nin %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor; bu da genellikle k\u0131sa vadeli gilt getirilerini yukar\u0131 iter. Sterlin opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011finden, y\u00f6nsel opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fi yakalamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan maliyet etkin bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00f6nsel kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 t\u00fcrev pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n risk parametrelerini 1,3265\u2019teki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesi etraf\u0131nda konumland\u0131rmalar\u0131 ve stop seviyelerini 1,3135\u2019teki son diplerin alt\u0131na yerle\u015ftirmeleri uygun olacakt\u0131r. Fed s\u00f6yleminde ani bir \u015fahinle\u015fme ya da ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin son \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 diplerinden tepki vermesi h\u0131zl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri tetikleyebilir. Bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, birikmi\u015f kazan\u00e7lar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in takip eden zarar-kes (trailing stop-loss) emirlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 veya vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 yeniden arkadan esiyor: Warsh\u2019ten y\u00f6nlendirme gelmeyince Dolar yumu\u015fad\u0131, BoE\u2019nin Kas\u0131m\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisiyle GBP\/USD 1,3350 \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; hedef 1,35, kritik destek 1,3265.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t