EUR\/USD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131cak gelen ABD enflasyon verilerinin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 102,50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki yeni y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvelere ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,50 geriledi. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 1,1113\u2019\u00fc g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra son olarak 1,1145 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; bu seviye May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti: 27-28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k veri \u00f6ncesi %22\u2019den %43\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %95\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. TD Securities, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019de ayl\u0131k %0,36 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Euro, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n mali ve siyasi arka plan\u0131ndan da bask\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan parite, 1,1700\u2019de ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan A\u011fustos ortas\u0131ndan bu yana kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve \u00f6nemli Basit Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,1481, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,1479 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,1588 ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 spotun \u00fczerinde. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri negatif b\u00f6lgede: RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 26 seviyesinde, MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve ADX 53\u2019e yak\u0131n y\u00fckseliyor. Diren\u00e7 1,1200 ve 1,1350\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 1,1483-1,1489 ve 1,1591\u2019de izleniyor; destek 1,1150\u2019den ba\u015fl\u0131yor, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1000 seviyesi bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. Vadeli piyasalarda 27-28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in %43, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7inse yakla\u015f\u0131k %95 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131rken; opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 en cazip strateji olmaya devam ediyor. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksekken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma sat\u0131n almak, paritenin 1,1000 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru ek hareketlerinden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00e7izgiler dahil kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin agresif sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Ortalama Y\u00f6n Endeksi (ADX) 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken RSI\u2019\u0131n 30\u2019un alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, paritelerde ana trende d\u00f6nmeden \u00f6nce k\u0131sa bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6nemine i\u015faret edebiliyor. 1,1200 civar\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7te k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonu satarak, 1,1100 alt\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen uzun put pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmeyi de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verileri ve kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun \u00f6tesinde, Fransa\u2019daki siyasi ve mali belirsizlik Euro \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 kurmaya devam ediyor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 politika beklentileri Fed\u2019den ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine geni\u015fleyen bir faiz fark\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. K\u0131sa pozisyon kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131, 1,1350 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin hemen \u00fczerine stop-loss emirleri yerle\u015ftirerek s\u0131k\u0131 bir risk y\u00f6netimi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u0131cak ABD enflasyonu Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, EUR\/USD May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten beri dipte 1,1145. Fed art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 Ekim %43, Aral\u0131k %95. Teknikler sert negatif; 1,1000 hedef, opsiyonla k\u0131sa strateji.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69748,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t