NZD\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc derinle\u015ftirerek %0,77 geriledi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5570 seviyesine indi; bu, en son Nisan 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir dip. S\u0131cak gelen ABD enflasyonunun Dolar\u2019\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi ve beklentileri Federal Rezerv\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na \u00e7evirmesinin ard\u0131ndan hareket, pariteyi 0,5580 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na ve Ekim ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana korunmu\u015f i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu, Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE\u2019yi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,7 (A\u011fustos: %3,4) olarak raporlad\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE ise %2,4\u2019ten %2,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. Ayl\u0131k bazda man\u015fet enflasyon %0,6, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %0,3 artarak k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 politika duru\u015funa odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Veri sonras\u0131 faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti: Ekim\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %22\u2019den %40\u2019a y\u00fckselirken, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ilave 25 bp ad\u0131m ihtimali %35\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,20\u2019den %5,33\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken, ABD Dolar Endeksi %0,62 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 102,85\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye de Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Bir saatlik grafikte NZD\/USD 0,5571\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 0,5620 g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve 0,5605 civar\u0131ndaki 100 ve 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretti. 14 periyotluk RSI 23,0 de\u011ferini verirken, diren\u00e7 0,5580 ve destek 0,5540 seviyelerinde izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
0,5580 alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n son konsolidasyon faz\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fine i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle NZD\/USD paritesinde y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f (sell-on-rally) stratejisini kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeliyiz. Beklentileri a\u015fan ABD enflasyonu, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019yi %3,7\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131yarak Federal Rezerv\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini peki\u015ftiriyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %5,33\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda y\u00fcksek beta para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan t\u00fcrev stratejileri ana oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Saatlik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 23,0 ile derin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, en dipten sat\u0131\u015f yapmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131; bunun yerine k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fczeltme s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz. Yeni olu\u015fan 0,5580 direnci ve 0,5605 civar\u0131ndaki hareketli ortalama k\u00fcmelenmesi, yeni ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kontratlar a\u00e7mak i\u00e7in cazip giri\u015f b\u00f6lgeleri sunuyor. 0,5630 \u00fczerine s\u0131k\u0131 koruyucu zarar-kes (stop) koymak, beklenmedik bir k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama rallisi durumunda riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyat hareketi 0,5540\u2019taki yak\u0131n destek taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefleri daha derin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyelere do\u011fru geni\u015fletmeyi \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ABD Dolar Endeksi 102,85 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesiyle birlikte kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimleri 1,5% ile 3,0% aras\u0131nda s\u00fcrebilen \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilir. Opsiyon piyasalar\u0131nda ay\u0131 put spread (bear put spread) kullan\u0131m\u0131, olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc devamdan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flarken, potansiyel volatilite kaynakl\u0131 zararlar\u0131 da s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u0131cak ABD T\u00dcFE verisi Dolar\u2019\u0131 u\u00e7urdu, NZD\/USD %0,77 d\u00fc\u015ferek 0,5570\u2019e indi; 0,5580 alt\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Fed art\u0131\u015f beklentisi y\u00fckseldi; 10Y %5,33. Strateji: y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69742,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t