\u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticareti Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu; k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sermaye harcamalar\u0131 (capex) ve teknoloji \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde daha sa\u011flam fiyatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekledi. \u0130hracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %36,3\u2019e h\u0131zlanarak Bloomberg tahmini olan %25,7\u2019nin ve A\u011fustos\u2019taki %25,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ithalat ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %31,0 artarak %25,0\u2019lik tahmini ve \u00f6nceki %28,2 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131. 9A26 d\u00f6neminde ihracat %21,3, ithalat %27,5 artt\u0131; k\u00fcm\u00fclatif d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 870,37 milyar ABD dolar\u0131ndan 938,11 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na geni\u015fledi.<\/p>\n\n
Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyir ve teknoloji talebi, 2026 ticaret tahminlerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyona yol a\u00e7t\u0131; ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %17,0\u2019den %23\u2019e, ithalat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ise %22,0\u2019den %26\u2019ya y\u00fckseltildi. Uluslararas\u0131 Acil Ekonomik Yetkiler Yasas\u0131 (IEEPA) kapsam\u0131nda getirilen tarifelerin h\u00fck\u00fcms\u00fcz k\u0131l\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ve May\u0131s\u2019taki zirve ile Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki toplant\u0131 d\u00e2hil ikili ili\u015fkileri istikrara kavu\u015fturmaya y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar\u0131 takiben, ABD ile ticaret ak\u0131mlar\u0131 iyile\u015fti; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ABD ile ihracat ve ithalat \u00e7ift haneli b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Yurti\u00e7i ko\u015fullar zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ederken, son maliye ve para politikas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131 destekleyici olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelendi; bu durum 2026 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin resmi %4,5\u2013%5,0 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi beklentisini korudu.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00c7in\u2019in h\u0131zla b\u00fcy\u00fcyen teknoloji ihracat\u0131ndan kaynaklanan momentumu yakalayacak \u015fekilde pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talebe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %36,3\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu art\u0131\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yapay zek\u00e2 donan\u0131m\u0131 ve yar\u0131 iletken bile\u015fenlerine y\u00f6nelik k\u00fcresel talep taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara girerken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu sermaye harcamas\u0131 dalgas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca k\u00fcresel teknoloji endeksleri \u00fczerinde uzun (long) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ve yar\u0131 iletken sepeti t\u00fcrevlerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131ndaki 938,11 milyar dolarl\u0131k devasa k\u00fcm\u00fclatif d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131, \u00c7in para birimi i\u00e7in temel bir destek olu\u015fturuyor. Ancak i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gidermek \u00fczere parasal gev\u015feme ad\u0131mlar\u0131 devreye girerken, para biriminin agresif bir ralli yerine belirli bir bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. D\u00f6viz paritelerinde opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 veya bant i\u00e7i getiriyi hedefleyen opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 kullanmak, y\u00f6nsel risk almadan ima edilen oynakl\u0131ktan (implied volatility) faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n verebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ithalattaki y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %31,0\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, ithal hammaddeler ve teknoloji girdilerine y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi talebine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6zellikle bak\u0131r ve kilit end\u00fcstriyel metallerde emtia t\u00fcrevlerine bakan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, arz-talep dinamiklerini yakalamak i\u00e7in kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck tarife gev\u015femelerini izleyen tarihsel ticaret d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri, ithalat talebinin s\u0131kl\u0131kla birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek boyunca y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7in\u2019in genel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,5\u2013%5,0 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131 olsa da, son mali te\u015fvik ad\u0131mlar\u0131 daha geni\u015f hisse senedi g\u00f6stergeleri i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Te\u015fvik kaynakl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyele kat\u0131lmak ve riski kesin s\u0131n\u0131rlarla tutmak i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca \u00c7in hisse endekslerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerini (bull call spread) kullanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fin geri kalan\u0131nda i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim g\u00f6stergeleri durgun kal\u0131rsa sermayeyi korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl d\u0131\u015f ticareti yapay zek\u00e2 ve teknoloji fiyat deste\u011fiyle parlad\u0131: ihracat %36,3, ithalat %31 artt\u0131; fazla 938 milyar $\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2026 tahminleri yukar\u0131 revize, t\u00fcrevlerde teknoloji long\/kur bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t