{"id":69726,"date":"2026-10-15T02:54:09","date_gmt":"2026-10-15T02:54:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dollar-lifts-usd-jpy-towards-159-as-hot-us-inflation-drives-yields-and-intervention-concerns-linger\/"},"modified":"2026-10-15T02:54:09","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T02:54:09","slug":"dollar-lifts-usd-jpy-towards-159-as-hot-us-inflation-drives-yields-and-intervention-concerns-linger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dollar-lifts-usd-jpy-towards-159-as-hot-us-inflation-drives-yields-and-intervention-concerns-linger\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar, ABD\u2019de y\u00fcksek enflasyonun tahvil getirilerini y\u00fckseltmesiyle USD\/JPY\u2019yi 159\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek %0,36 art\u0131\u015fla 158,90 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ABD\u2019de beklentilerden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelen enflasyon verilerinin Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekleyip Fed politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle eyl\u00fcl zirvesine yak\u0131n 159,00 seviyesine do\u011fru ilerledi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE verisi, man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda A\u011fustos\u2019taki %3,4\u2019ten %3,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ise %2,4\u2019ten %2,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Ayl\u0131k bazda man\u015fet ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon s\u0131ras\u0131yla %0,6 ve %0,3 artt\u0131. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcncellendi; Ekim\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %22\u2019den %53\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, Aral\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %18\u2019den %50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,20\u2019den %5,33\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken, DXY %0,55 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 102,75\u2019e y\u00fckselerek Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n

Yen, zay\u0131f Japon \u00dcFE verileri ve BoJ\u2019un Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesindeki ihtiyatl\u0131 mesajlar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrini korudu; bu durum politika fark\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 158,95 civar\u0131nda, 158,31\u2019deki 100 periyotluk SMA ve 158,16\u2019daki 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 71,9 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 159,00 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; destekler 158,45, ard\u0131ndan 158,31 ve 158,16 seviyeleri olarak belirtiliyor. Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 157,85, 157,00 ve 156,50 seviyeleri izlenirken, 159,00\u2019a yak\u0131nl\u0131k m\u00fcdahale riskinin yeniden artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na da i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Momentum Stratejileri ve Risk Kontrolleri<\/h3>\n\n

USD\/JPY 159,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunu yakalarken s\u0131k\u0131 risk kontrol\u00fc uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %5,33\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve ABD man\u015fet enflasyonunun %3,7\u2019ye h\u0131zlanmas\u0131yla call opsiyonlar\u0131 ve uzun pozisyonlar cazibesini koruyor. Ancak saatlik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 71,9 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yeni uzun i\u015flemler a\u00e7madan \u00f6nce 158,45 destek seviyesine do\u011fru k\u0131sa geri \u00e7ekilmeleri beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n

Parite, Tokyo\u2019nun tarihsel olarak do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine ba\u015fvurdu\u011fu seviyelere yakla\u015f\u0131rken sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131. 2024\u2019te benzer ralli d\u00f6nemlerinde Japon yetkililer, kur 155,00 \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan ve 160,00\u2019a yakla\u015f\u0131rken Yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in 9,8 trilyon yenin (62 milyar $) \u00fczerinde harcama yapt\u0131. Ani m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bull call spread gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli yap\u0131lar\u0131 kullanabilir veya vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) koruyucu put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Carry, K\u00e2r Realizasyonu ve Oynakl\u0131k Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan bir Fed ile ihtiyatl\u0131 bir BoJ aras\u0131ndaki artan para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, carry odakl\u0131 stratejiler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sunuyor. Mevcut uzun kontratlarda 159,00 civar\u0131nda k\u0131smi k\u00e2r al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirlerini ise 158,31\u2019deki 100 periyotluk hareketli ortalaman\u0131n hemen alt\u0131ndan takip eden \u015fekilde (trailing) ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, artan ima edilen oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanarak uzun t\u00fcrev pozisyonlara kar\u015f\u0131 kapal\u0131 call (covered call) satarak ek gelir de elde edebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Ekim\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi %53\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rarken, t\u00fcrev pozisyonlanman\u0131n gelecek makro veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131 gerekir. Japonya maliye yetkililerinden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin gelebilecek herhangi bir s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyon kapamalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla tetikleyebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, agresif Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 riski ile ani Japon m\u00fcdahalesi riskinin birlikte y\u00f6netilebilmesi i\u00e7in toplam kald\u0131ra\u00e7 seviyesini ola\u011fan\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler 159\u2019da: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyonu Dolar\u2019\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, USD\/JPY 158,90\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve tahvil faizleri s\u0131\u00e7rarken Yen zay\u0131f. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m; m\u00fcdahale riski ve s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69725,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t