FactSet\u2019e g\u00f6re S&P 500 \u015firketleri, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 25\u2019in \u00fczerinde k\u00e2r art\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011fru ilerliyor ve k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 nisan\u2013haziran d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 17\u2019ye ula\u015farak 2009\u2019a kadar geri giden veriler i\u00e7inde en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n temelini olu\u015fturan nakit \u00fcretimi iki y\u0131ld\u0131r zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yapay zek\u00e2 veri merkezi kapasitesi in\u015fa eden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir grupta yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor. A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 zamanlamadan kaynaklan\u0131yor: b\u00fcy\u00fck harcamalar pe\u015fin \u00f6deniyor, ancak amortisman yoluyla gelir tablosuna kademeli yans\u0131yor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu fark, amortisman giderleri biriktik\u00e7e nihayetinde k\u00e2ra geri besleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bank of America stratejistleri serbest nakit ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (FCF) raporlanan k\u00e2r\u0131n pay\u0131 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor ve endeksin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 aya ili\u015fkin oran\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 85 seviyesinde; 2016\u20132023 d\u00f6neminde bu oran kabaca y\u00fczde 90\u201395\u2019ti. Hiperskal sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131larda ise oran yakla\u015f\u0131k -y\u00fczde 15 d\u00fczeyinde. En b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6rt harcay\u0131c\u0131 olan Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon ve Meta i\u00e7in nisan\u2013haziran \u00e7eyre\u011finde sermaye harcamas\u0131 165 milyar dolar olurken amortisman 37 milyar dolarda kald\u0131; bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce bu rakamlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla 88 milyar dolar ve 25 milyar dolard\u0131. Faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131 105 milyar dolardan 128 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi; ekipman harcamalar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda elde yakla\u015f\u0131k 7 milyar dolar nakit kald\u0131. 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 730 milyar dolar harcama yapmalar\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k amortisman\u0131n 150 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; Moody\u2019s, en b\u00fcy\u00fck bulut \u015firketlerinin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2027\u2019de 1 trilyon dolara yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. FactSet, \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte teknoloji k\u00e2rlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 65,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmin ediyor. Hisse geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda: S&P Dow Jones Indices, geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 S&P 500 hisselerine y\u00f6nelik y\u0131ll\u0131k talebin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 olarak hesapl\u0131yor; ancak Alphabet ve Meta 2025\u2019te 72 milyar dolar geri al\u0131m yapt\u0131ktan sonra 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda hi\u00e7 geri al\u0131m yapmad\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde Meta 24,9 milyar dolar bor\u00e7lan\u0131rken Alphabet, hisse ihrac\u0131 ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclebilir imtiyazl\u0131 menkul k\u0131ymet ihrac\u0131 yoluyla 49,6 milyar dolar kaynak sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 2026 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek k\u00e2r tahminleri, teknolojinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 18 ila y\u00fczde 20 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye liderlik etti\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, 2026 i\u00e7in toplam mega-cap teknoloji capex\u2019inin 300 milyar\u2013400 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonundaki teknoloji yat\u0131r\u0131m dalgas\u0131 gibi y\u00fcksek capex d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde, k\u00e2r rakamlar\u0131 yava\u015flamay\u0131 yans\u0131tmadan \u00f6nce serbest nakit ak\u0131m\u0131 marjlar\u0131 sert \u015fekilde daralm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 amortisman takvimleri ilerledik\u00e7e, benzer bir yap\u0131sal s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmenin raporlanan net marjlar\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 beklenmeli.<\/p>\n\n
Ekim 2026 sonundaki bilan\u00e7o sezonuna girerken, mega-cap \u015firket a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev portf\u00f6ylerini konumland\u0131rmak gerekiyor. Opsiyon skew\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn, tarihsel bilan\u00e7o \u00e7eyreklerine k\u0131yasla kuyruk riskine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz koruma fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kilit hiperskal oyuncularda uzun straddle veya takvim spreadleri sat\u0131n almak, bilan\u00e7o \u00f6ncesi volatilite geni\u015flemesinden faydalanabilir. Bu, faaliyet k\u00e2r\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131rken marjlarda ani s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma riskinin if\u015fa edilmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonu korur.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, geri al\u0131m deste\u011finin yap\u0131sal olarak zay\u0131flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 geni\u015f piyasa endekslerinde put spreadleri kullanmak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel olarak, \u015firket geri al\u0131mlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k 900 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir hisse talebi yaratarak geri \u00e7ekilmelerde piyasaya istikrarl\u0131 bir taban sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji oyuncular\u0131ndan gelen bu nakit ak\u0131m\u0131 yast\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmadan, endeksteki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler daha sert ve daha az tamponlu h\u00e2le gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, yar\u0131 iletken \u00fcreticileri ile hiperskal al\u0131c\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma (dispersion) stratejilerine bak\u0131labilir. Capex y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerinin k\u00e2rlar\u0131 nakit a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlanan bulut devlerini geride b\u0131rakacak; bu da hisse opsiyonlar\u0131yla net bir long-short f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Ancak beklentileri\/y\u00f6nlendirmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekir; capex kesintisine dair en ufak bir sinyal, \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) primlerini h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rekor k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen S&P 500\u2019de nakit alarm\u0131: Yapay zek\u00e2 veri merkezi capex\u2019i FCF\u2019yi eritiyor; hiperskaller negatifle\u015fiyor, geri al\u0131mlar zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Bilan\u00e7o \u00f6ncesi opsiyonlarla volatilite f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t