{"id":69670,"date":"2026-10-14T03:56:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T03:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dollar-eases-from-18-month-high-as-markets-brace-for-us-cpi-and-fed-signals\/"},"modified":"2026-10-14T03:56:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T03:56:46","slug":"dollar-eases-from-18-month-high-as-markets-brace-for-us-cpi-and-fed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dollar-eases-from-18-month-high-as-markets-brace-for-us-cpi-and-fed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar, piyasalar\u0131n ABD T\u00dcFE verisi ve Fed sinyallerine odaklanmas\u0131yla 18 ay\u0131n zirvesinden geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Eyl\u00fcl T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi \u00f6ncesinde 18 ay\u0131n zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4\u2019ten %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek fiyatlar\u0131n ayl\u0131k bazda %0,6\u2019l\u0131k genel art\u0131\u015fa k\u0131yasla %0,2 y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; piyasalar Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Fed\u2019den 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor, ancak ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek verinin %0,4 gelmesi 27-28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda daha erken bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in tetikleyici olarak g\u00f6steriliyor. ABD tahvil getirilerinden gelen destek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi %5,2 civar\u0131nda ve 24 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n; Guvern\u00f6r Waller y\u00fckseli\u015fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ba\u011flad\u0131 ve Hazine tahvillerinin \u201ckolayl\u0131k getirisi\u201d (convenience yield) kaybetti\u011fini belirterek maliyeti 0,5 ila 0,7 puan olarak tahmin etti.<\/p>\n\n

Petrol de geriledi; Brent, 107 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, Rusya\u2019dan dizel arz\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileriyle 106 dolar\u0131n yeniden alt\u0131na indi. Bu geli\u015fme, Avrupal\u0131 ve Japon ithalat\u00e7\u0131lardan kaynaklanan dolar talebini azaltt\u0131. DXY, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 102,60\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerine (Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye) uzanan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, 102,60\u2019\u0131n biraz alt\u0131ndan 102,20\u2019nin biraz alt\u0131na geriledi; daha sonra 102,20 civar\u0131nda dengelendi ve 102,30\u2019a do\u011fru toparlanma denemesi s\u00f6n\u00fcmlendi. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan endeks, 100,70 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve geri \u00e7ekilme, 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 98,60 civar\u0131ndaki dipten ba\u015flayan rallinin yakla\u015f\u0131k onda biri b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n

Yakla\u015fan Volatilite \u0130\u00e7in T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, yakla\u015fan T\u00dcFE verisini piyasalar\u0131n sindirdi\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7te k\u0131sa vadeli volatilitede art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayl\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon beklenen %0,2 yerine %0,4\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rarsa, olas\u0131l\u0131k modelleri Ekim sonundaki erken faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 102,60 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvenin \u00fczerinde ya\u015fanabilecek ani bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in volatilite stratejilerine veya Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (call) y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Verinin hemen sonras\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, riski dikkatle y\u00f6neterek dolarda se\u00e7ici bi\u00e7imde pozitif bir duru\u015fun korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveler civar\u0131nda konsolide oldu\u011funda, ana teknik destek seviyelerine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmeler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kurumsal al\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7ekme e\u011filiminde oluyor. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 100,70 civar\u0131nda \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d hedefleyen \u015fekilde kurgulanan t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in cazip bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n

D\u00f6viz ve Emtia Etkile\u015fimi: Petrol\u00fcn Etkisi ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 106 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 d\u00f6viz ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkiliyor. \u0130statistiksel olarak petrolde kal\u0131c\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, yabanc\u0131 enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan k\u0131sa vadeli dolar talebini azaltarak Avrupa ve Japon para birimlerine ge\u00e7ici bir nefes alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma potansiyeli \u00f6ncesinde maj\u00f6r d\u00f6viz paritelerinde tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejileri kullanarak bu ge\u00e7ici kaymay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Son olarak, g\u00fcnl\u00fck momentum g\u00f6stergeleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m seviyelerinden so\u011fumay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in spot pozisyona do\u011frudan maruz kalmak yerine yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejilerinin tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD getirilerinin %5,2 civar\u0131nda sundu\u011fu belirgin faiz avantaj\u0131yla, carry trade dinamikleri \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 ufukta h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Daha yumu\u015fak bir enflasyon verisinin ge\u00e7ici bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi durumunda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 koruma seviyeleri belirlemek veya sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) almak, pozisyon riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019de: DXY 18 ay zirvesinden solukland\u0131. Man\u015fet %3,6, \u00e7ekirdek %0,2 bekleniyor; %0,4 s\u00fcrprizi erken Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. 10Y %5,2; petrol 106 alt\u0131. Opsiyonla volatilite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t