Hindistan\u2019\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %5,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek a\u011fustostaki %4,8\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; %5,6\u2019l\u0131k Bloomberg beklentisinin hafif alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken Aral\u0131k 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Art\u0131\u015fa g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti ancak fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n genele yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; man\u015fet enflasyonun Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) %2\u2013%6 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine daha ekim ay\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. RBI, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyonun ortalama %6,0 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 projekte ederken, 2026\u20132027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 tahminini y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, INR\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve El Ni\u00f1o ile ili\u015fkilendirilen daha zay\u0131f ya\u011f\u0131\u015flara ba\u011fl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek %5,0\u2019tan %5,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Enflasyon risklerinin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, merkezin 4 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi 25 bp art\u0131rarak %5,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karabilecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011fu; \u201ckalibre\u201d s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimi alt\u0131nda 2027\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ilave 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fi ifade edildi. D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda USD\/INR, RBI\u2019nin devlet kontroll\u00fc petrol pazarlama \u015firketleri i\u00e7in \u00f6zel bir USD imk\u00e2n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve dayanak varl\u0131k olmaks\u0131z\u0131n INR t\u00fcrev i\u015flemlerine izin verilen limiti USD100 mn\u2019den USD5 mn\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi gibi destek ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,0 gerileyerek 95,78\u2019e indi. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cD\u00f6viz Riski Rezervi\u201d uygulamas\u0131 devreye al\u0131nd\u0131; USD2 mn \u00fczerindeki her bir FX t\u00fcrevi i\u00e7in nominal tutar\u0131n %20\u2019sinin RBI nezdinde bloke edilmesi \u015fart\u0131 getirildi. Bu ad\u0131m, ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n kur riskinden korunma maliyetlerini art\u0131rabilecekken, USD\/INR\u2019nin 94\u201396 band\u0131na do\u011fru gev\u015feyebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in %5,5\u2019lik enflasyon verisi, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 %6\u2019l\u0131k \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131ra tehlikeli bi\u00e7imde yakla\u015ft\u0131rarak yak\u0131n vadede politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 somut bir olas\u0131l\u0131k haline getiriyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde enflasyonun ortalama %6,0\u2019a ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara \u015fahin bir RBI senaryosuna haz\u0131rl\u0131k \u00f6neriyoruz. 4 Aral\u0131k toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Gecelik Endeksli Swap\u2019larda (OIS) \u201cpay fixed\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak, politika faizinin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %5,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019lik D\u00f6viz Riski Rezervi y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dahil agresif d\u00f6viz tedbirleri, kur riskinden korunma maliyet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. \u0130thalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyonlarda daha y\u00fcksek maliyetlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle tezgah\u00fcst\u00fc (OTC) forward i\u015flemlerinde hacim s\u0131k\u0131\u015fabilir ve likidite standartla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f borsa i\u015flemli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelere kayabilir. USD\/INR\u2019nin k\u0131sa vadede 94\u201396 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 95,78\u2019den g\u00f6r\u00fclen ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeyi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in vadeli i\u015flemlerde k\u0131sa pozisyonlar veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread stratejileri etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve El Ni\u00f1o kaynakl\u0131 hava ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n g\u0131da arz\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmeye devam etmesiyle, daha geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak Hindistan\u2019da enerji ve tar\u0131msal arz \u015foklar\u0131, birden \u00e7ok \u00e7eyre\u011fe yay\u0131lan kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat ge\u00e7i\u015fkenliklerine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Y\u0131l sonuna kadar enflasyonda yeniden geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, emtia t\u00fcrevlerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) stratejileriyle uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Hindistan\u2019da T\u00dcFE %5,5\u2019e t\u0131rmanarak bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; g\u0131da \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde yay\u0131lma var. RBI\u2019den Aral\u0131kta 25 bp art\u0131\u015f, 2027\u2019de ek ad\u0131m sinyali. D\u00f6viz tedbirleriyle USD\/INR 95,78\u2019e indi; 94\u201396 hedef. OIS pay-fixed, put spread, emtia call \u00f6ner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69636","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t