WTI, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirerek iki haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 89,02 dolarl\u0131k dipten toparlanarak 93,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn\u00fc %2,75 art\u0131da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hareket, Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc duyurulan ve ilk etapta fiyatlar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratan Rusya-Ukrayna aras\u0131nda \u201cderhal enerji ate\u015fkesi\u201d iddialar\u0131n\u0131n piyasalarca yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesiyle geldi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, daha \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ABD ve k\u00fcresel piyasalara 300 bin tondan fazla dizel (yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,25 milyon varil) tedarik edece\u011fi ve ilave y\u00fcklerin planland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015fti; ancak bu rahatlama k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
\u015e\u00fcpheler, Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n \u00fclkedeki enerji tesislerine alt\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini bildirmesiyle yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelirken, Rusya temaslar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risk de ham petrole destek verdi: Hafta sonu Husilerin Riyad\u2019daki uluslararas\u0131 havaliman\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Bab el-Mendeb yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir petrol s\u00fcper tankerinin deniz may\u0131n\u0131na \u00e7arpt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; seyr\u00fcseferin devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen uyar\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131n ayr\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Talep taraf\u0131nda ise OPEC, 2026 petrol talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini 400 bin varil\/g\u00fcne indirdi; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki 1,4 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn tahmininden geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
Enerji piyasalar\u0131 artan jeopolitik arz riskleriyle bo\u011fu\u015furken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ham petrol\u00fcn kritik deniz ge\u00e7itlerine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde yeniden artan aksamalar sonras\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 93 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla, al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in riskin tan\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunar. 2019\u2019da Suudi Arabistan\u2019daki i\u015fleme tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ham petrol\u00fc tek g\u00fcnde %14\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckseltmesi gibi tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, ciddi arz tehditlerinde enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatlayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik man\u015fetler y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini desteklese de, altta yatan talep zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flamal\u0131y\u0131z. OPEC\u2019in 2026 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminini 400 bin varil\/g\u00fcn gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyeye sert bi\u00e7imde indirmesi, k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131makta zorlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Opsiyon collar stratejilerinden yararlanmak veya disiplinli zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri uygulamak, diplomatik ilerlemenin yeniden h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 halinde ani sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Nakliye darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek bir fiziksel piyasa s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yarat\u0131p yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kamu ve sekt\u00f6r kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok raporlar\u0131n\u0131 takip etmemizi \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde ABD EIA\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ham petrol stoklar\u0131 be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na indi\u011finde, petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek stok \u00e7ekili\u015fleriyle desteklendi\u011fini do\u011frulamak, uzun pozisyon al\u0131rken bize daha y\u00fcksek g\u00fcven sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa volatilitesinin y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 sade (plain) opsiyonlar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirdi\u011finden, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyeti korurken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 prim maliyetini azaltmak i\u00e7in dikey al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (vertical call spreads) kullanabiliriz. Bu strateji, ani politika de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinden kaynaklanan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 risk almadan 95\u2013100 dolar band\u0131 gibi daha y\u00fcksek fiyat seviyelerini hedeflememizi sa\u011flar. K\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131mak, piyasalar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fen arz haberlerine s\u00fcrekli uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda \u00e7evik kalmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde s\u00fcrpriz ralli: WTI, 89 dolardan d\u00f6nerek 93,5 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131. Rusya-Ukrayna ate\u015fkes s\u00f6z\u00fc sorgulan\u0131rken Ortado\u011fu riskleri destekliyor. OPEC talep beklentisini k\u0131sarken volatilite art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69621","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t