WTI, pazartesi erken i\u015flemlerde bir sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n Rusya\u2013Ukrayna aras\u0131nda derhal ate\u015fkes sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iddia etmesinin ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90,55 dolara gerileyerek %1,42 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu iddia, Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n azalabilece\u011fi ve dizel arz\u0131n\u0131n artabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde beklentileri tetikledi. Ancak taraflardan hi\u00e7biri bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 do\u011frulamad\u0131: Ukrayna, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde davranmas\u0131 halinde Rus enerji tesislerini hedef almay\u0131 b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n Kiev ve Harkiv\u2019de enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n bildirildi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. \u0130lk \u201cbar\u0131\u015f primi\u201d daha sonra, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n man\u015fetler yerine fiziksel ak\u0131\u015flarda kan\u0131t aramas\u0131yla yeniden fiyatland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan WTI, 90\u201392 b\u00f6lgesinde tutunmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20-EMA Bollinger band\u0131 (1 sd) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kesin bir k\u0131r\u0131lma g\u00f6stermedi; Stochastic RSI ise a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131nd\u0131. D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte fiyat, 4S-50 EMA band\u0131 (1 sd) taraf\u0131ndan bask\u0131lanmaya devam ederken; 93,80\u201394,90 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 90,6 ile 94,9 aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir bant hareketi g\u00fcndeme geldi; ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k halinde odak 88,38 dolar civar\u0131ndaki deste\u011fe kayabilir. Di\u011fer tarafta, Kas\u0131rga Isaias sonras\u0131 ABD K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nde a\u00e7\u0131k deniz \u00fcretiminin %57,5\u2019i pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc itibar\u0131yla h\u00e2l\u00e2 kapal\u0131yd\u0131 ve Washington, d\u00f6rt milyon varile kadar SPR de\u011fi\u015fim (exchange) i\u015flemini onaylad\u0131. Riyad \u00e7evresindeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki tanker olaylar\u0131 da ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k risklerini g\u00fcndemde tuttu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD T\u00dcFE ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00dcFE verileri TS\u0130 15:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %5,24 seviyesindeydi; Nasdaq vadeli i\u015flemleri pazartesi erken saatlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, yaln\u0131zca do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015f sosyal medya man\u015fetlerinin tetikledi\u011fi refleks sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n pe\u015finden gitme konusunda uyarmal\u0131y\u0131z. Tarihsel piyasa verileri, fiziksel arz ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi takdirde jeopolitik risk primlerinin 48 ila 72 saat i\u00e7inde yeniden \u015fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerini disiplinli tutmak, sahada kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmayan erken bar\u0131\u015f s\u00f6ylentilerinin bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta, WTI\u2019\u0131n 90,00\u201392,00 dolar aras\u0131ndaki kilit destek b\u00f6lgesi etraf\u0131ndaki davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde odaklanmam\u0131z gerekiyor. 93,80 ile 94,90 dolar aras\u0131ndaki 4 saatlik \u00fcst diren\u00e7 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, daha geni\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011funu teyit eder. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 90,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedeflerin 88,38 dolara do\u011fru belirlenmesini g\u00fcndeme getirir; bu da s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimini kritik hale getirir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t (finansal) ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 dizel gibi rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiziksel ger\u00e7ekli\u011finden ay\u0131rmal\u0131y\u0131z. Sekt\u00f6r verileri, rafineri altyap\u0131s\u0131ndaki hasar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck kesinti sonras\u0131 ortalama \u00fc\u00e7 ila alt\u0131 hafta i\u00e7inde normal kapasiteye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilmesi nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ham petrol\u00fc tek ba\u015f\u0131na i\u015flem yapmak yerine rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (crack spreads) izlemeli.<\/p>\n\n
ABD\u2019deki fiziksel arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 da k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda temkinli kal\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir ba\u015fka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. ABD K\u00f6rfezi a\u00e7\u0131k deniz \u00fcretiminin %57\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131 yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde kesintiye u\u011fram\u0131\u015fken, tarihsel \u00f6rnekler acil Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR) transferlerinin rafinerilere fiziksel olarak ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n 30 g\u00fcne kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Agresif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar almadan \u00f6nce, ger\u00e7ek bir arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmek i\u00e7in resmi haftal\u0131k stok istatistiklerinin beklenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, yakla\u015fan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z; zira bu veriler daha geni\u015f piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillendirebilir. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %5,24 civar\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri hisse senetleri ve riskli varl\u0131klarda de\u011ferleme geni\u015flemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu makroekonomik veriler \u00f6ncesinde ve sonras\u0131nda kald\u0131ra\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 dikkatle y\u00f6netmek, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n petrol, alt\u0131n ve hisse endeksleri aras\u0131nda korelasyon kaynakl\u0131 dalgal\u0131 hareketlerde yol almas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI, do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015f ate\u015fkes s\u00f6ylentisiyle %1,42 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp 90,55$\u2019a indi; \u201cbar\u0131\u015f primi\u201d h\u0131zla geri fiyatland\u0131. 90\u201392$ destek, 93,8\u201394,9$ diren\u00e7. K\u00f6rfez \u00fcretim kesintisi, SPR ve T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE volatiliteyi art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69594,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t