Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Asya seans\u0131nda 4.217 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken y\u00fckseli\u015flerini geri verdi ve bu haftaki ABD enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlanman\u0131n temkinli kalmas\u0131yla 4.163 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiyatlar yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftad\u0131r 4.100\u20134.200 dolar band\u0131nda tutunuyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) ve y\u00fcksek ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, 4.000 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde al\u0131c\u0131lar gelmeye devam etti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 102,10 dip seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 102,43 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; bu seviyeler en son Nisan 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Columbus Day nedeniyle ABD Hazine nakit piyasas\u0131 kapal\u0131yken; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, ge\u00e7en haftaki 5,36 zirvesinden gerileyerek 5,24% civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu seviye en son 2002\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda 0,6% (\u00f6nceki 0,4%) gelmesi beklenirken, y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n 3,4%\u2019ten 3,7%\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda 0,3%\u2019ten 0,2%\u2019ye gerilemesi, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn ise 2,4%\u2019ten 2,5%\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. 27\u201328 Ekim Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, CME FedWatch Tool faizlerin 3,75%\u20134,00% aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 80% olarak i\u015faret ediyor. \u015eubat sonundaki Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri ve yeniden artan sevkiyat endi\u015feleri s\u00fcrerken, talep g\u00f6stergeleri aras\u0131nda D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerinin A\u011fustos\u2019ta merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 39 ton net al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de alt\u0131n ETF\u2019lerine 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k giri\u015f yer al\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde alt\u0131n, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.225 dolar) alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken RSI 43 seviyesinde ve MACD hafif negatif; diren\u00e7 4.225 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.398 dolar seviyesinde; bunun \u00f6tesinde 4.500 ve 4.700 dolar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destek ise 4.052 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 4.000 ve 3.950 dolar seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.100\u20134.200 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki dar konsolidasyon band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 korumalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi verisi bu \u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, piyasa bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kana kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 3,7% gibi daha s\u0131cak bir beklentiye i\u015faret etmesi, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131 ve vadeli kontratlar genelinde anl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Enflasyon verileri beklentileri a\u015farsa, kritik 4.052 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Yak\u0131n zamanda 5,36% ile \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveye yak\u0131n seviyeleri test eden y\u00fcksek ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmaya devam ediyor. Bu senaryoda, k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131, 4.000 dolar psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fini hedeflemek i\u00e7in etkili bir y\u00f6ntem sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha zay\u0131f bir enflasyon verisi, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama olan 4.225 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ralli ba\u015flatabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, 4.398 dolar b\u00f6lgesini hedefleyen y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call stratejilerine girmeden \u00f6nce bu direncin \u00fczerinde teyitli bir k\u0131r\u0131lma aramalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, T\u00dcFE kaynakl\u0131 alt\u0131n hareketlerinin \u00e7o\u011fu kez a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 izleyen ilk 48 saat i\u00e7inde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum \u00fcretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimi de hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z; \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki deniz ticaret yollar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeni tehditler enerji maliyetlerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Tarihsel olarak, kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji \u015foklar\u0131 bir-iki ayl\u0131k gecikmeyle daha geni\u015f enflasyon metriklerine yans\u0131r ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutar. Bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk parametreleri veya daha geni\u015f stop-loss tamponlar\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yap\u0131sal talep daha uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f stratejileri i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc desteklemeye devam ediyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 A\u011fustos\u2019ta rezervlerine net 39 ton alt\u0131n eklerken, k\u00fcresel alt\u0131n borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015fler g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kal\u0131c\u0131 kurumsal al\u0131mlar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, 4.000 dolar taban\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda disiplinli \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d planlar\u0131n\u0131n haz\u0131r tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131n T\u00dcFE \u00f6ncesi 4.100\u20134.200 band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve %5,24 getiri bask\u0131 kuruyor. S\u0131cak enflasyon 4.052 alt\u0131n\u0131, zay\u0131f veri 4.225 \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc test ettirebilir; talep g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t