USD\/JPY, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan gev\u015feyerek Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 158,10 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Japonya\u2019daki Spor Bayram\u0131 tatili likiditeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Odak, yetkililerin ihracatta dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne, buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fletmeler ve hanehalk\u0131 i\u00e7in maliyetlerin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etmesi beklenen \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek verilerini de\u011ferlendirece\u011fi 29\u201330 Ekim Bank of Japan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda. Ancak Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ikinci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasalar, gecelik hedef faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k ya da Ocak\u2019ta %1,25\u2019ten %1,50\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesini fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn yedinci art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacak ve ard\u0131ndan Mart ya da Nisan\u2019da potansiyel olarak %1,75\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Parite ayr\u0131ca, zay\u0131f duyarl\u0131l\u0131k verilerinin bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 nedeniyle de geriledi: Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi Ekim\u2019de 46,3\u2019e, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki 48,1\u2019den d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; beklenti 47,6 idi. \u00c7ar\u015famba ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnleri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri \u00f6ncesinde Fed fiyatlamas\u0131 temkinli kal\u0131rken, CME FedWatch bu ay en az 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %17,7 olarak g\u00f6steriyor (bir hafta \u00f6nce %24,4); Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in ise olas\u0131l\u0131k %84,1 seviyesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Yemen\u2019de \u0130ran destekli Husilere kar\u015f\u0131 Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n yan\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin de yer alabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, Riyad\u2019daki uluslararas\u0131 havaliman\u0131na d\u00fczenlenen bir ba\u015fka \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl sald\u0131r\u0131 sonras\u0131nda enerji piyasas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya tatilinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite USD\/JPY\u2019yi 158,10 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda tuttu\u011fundan, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara bug\u00fcn temkinli kalmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bununla birlikte, haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesinde emir olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in bu sakin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7, iyi bir giri\u015f penceresi sunuyor. Piyasalara tam kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n geri d\u00f6nmesiyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olun.<\/p>\n\n
ABD T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi\u2019nin Ekim\u2019de 46,3\u2019e gerilemesiyle, ekonomiye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcvenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir. Piyasalar bu ay Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %17,7 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri yakalamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. K\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc, gelecek t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici fiyat verilerinin belirlemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
29\u201330 Ekim\u2019deki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131na do\u011fru bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor; ancak vadeli piyasalar Aral\u0131k ya da Ocak\u2019ta %1,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseli\u015fi fiyatl\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvilleri ile Japon tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/JPY, \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelerden gerileme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir. Bu daralan faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde orta vadeli kontratlar\u0131n yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik gerilimler de Japon Yeni al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 yoluyla koruma ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 destekliyor. Yen, ge\u00e7mi\u015f k\u00fcresel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00fcvenilir bi\u00e7imde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f ve piyasa stresi s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131kl\u0131kla h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 ani \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131, uzun ABD Dolar\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 risk kontrollerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 158,10\u2019da: Japonya tatili likiditeyi k\u0131st\u0131, zay\u0131f ABD g\u00fcveni dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131. G\u00f6zler BoJ 29\u201330 Ekim ve ABD T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE\u2019de; Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, jeopolitik risk yen talebini destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69553,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69554","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t