Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Putin ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 telefon g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ABD ve k\u00fcresel piyasalara derhal 300 bin tondan fazla dizel tedarik edece\u011fini; Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda 500 bin tonluk ve sonras\u0131nda 1 milyon tonluk ek sevkiyatlar\u0131n gelece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130lk 300 bin ton, yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,2 milyon varile denk geliyor; bu miktar, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla dizelden olu\u015fan orta distilat yak\u0131tlarda ABD talebinin yar\u0131m g\u00fcnden biraz fazlas\u0131. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn Hazine\u2019ye ba\u011fl\u0131 Yabanc\u0131 Varl\u0131klar\u0131n Kontrol\u00fc Ofisi (OFAC) 135 No\u2019lu Genel Lisans\u2019\u0131 yay\u0131mlayarak, Rus dizelinin \u2014ABD dahil\u2014 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ithalat\u0131na 7 Nisan 2027\u2019ye kadar izin verdi; hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda ise AB \u00fclkeleri, Trump\u2019\u0131n talebinin ard\u0131ndan dizel stoklar\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik Frans\u0131z \u00f6nerisini 2 Ekim\u2019de kabul etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
New York dizel vadeli i\u015flemleri yeniden gerileyerek galon ba\u015f\u0131na 4,67 dolar civar\u0131na indi; bu seviye varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 196 dolara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelirken, WTI\u2019nin 90,50 dolar civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 ABD rafinerileri i\u00e7in 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir marja i\u015faret ediyor. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan spot WTI, iki adet be\u015f dakikal\u0131k mum i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 91,00 dolardan 90,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na geriledi; bu hareket, seans dibinin hemen alt\u0131ndaki 89,50 dolardan gelen y\u00fckseli\u015fin yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc geri verdi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ikisi de 91,50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kalan iki zirvenin ard\u0131ndan geldi. WTI daha sonra 90,50 dolar civar\u0131na toparlanarak g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 89,50\u201391,50 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i momentum a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mdan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n seviyelere kayd\u0131 ve zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Rus yak\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n ani giri\u015finin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n devasa distilat crack spread\u2019inde daralmaya derhal haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dizel marjlar\u0131 WTI ham petrol\u00fcne g\u00f6re varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde seyrederken, bug\u00fcn 2,2 milyon varilin ve gelecek aylardaki sevkiyatlarda toplamda ayl\u0131k 1 milyon tona kadar ek arz\u0131n gelmesi, bu y\u00fcksek rafineri marjlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Bu arz kaymas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, ham petrole k\u0131yasla dizel fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan spread i\u015flemlerine girilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Rus dizel kargolar\u0131 yerli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle do\u011frudan rekabet etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, i\u015fleme k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla daral\u0131rsa ABD rafinerilerinin ham petrol al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smalar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak distilat marjlar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyelerden \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde rafinerilerin ham petrol talebi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde so\u011fur ve bu durum g\u00f6sterge fiyatlar \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. WTI\u2019nin kritik 89,50 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde k\u0131sa ham petrol vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Hazine lisans\u0131n\u0131n Nisan 2027\u2019ye kadar uzamas\u0131yla, distilatlar i\u00e7in yap\u0131sal arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn akut k\u0131tl\u0131ktan uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Benzer tarihsel politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinde acil muafiyetler verildi\u011finde, enerji opsiyon volatilitesi ilk etapta s\u0131\u00e7rarken piyasa fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00f6rt ila alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k d\u00f6nemde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti. Beklenen bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in, \u0131s\u0131tma ya\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcrevleri \u00fczerinde ay\u0131 (bear) put spread\u2019leri gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcn i\u00e7i teknik g\u00f6stergeler, momentumun a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mdan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n ko\u015fullara sert bi\u00e7imde kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da enerji kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir fiyat yap\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. WTI i\u00e7in 91,50 dolar tavan\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, yeni fiziksel arz\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit eder. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda koordineli Avrupa stok sal\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Rus sevkiyatlar\u0131 k\u00fcresel borsalara yans\u0131rken, s\u0131k\u0131 risk parametreleriyle \u00e7evik kalmak kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasaya s\u00fcrpriz dizel dopingi: Trump-Putin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesiyle Rusya\u2019dan 300 bin ton dizel hemen geliyor; OFAC 2027\u2019ye dek ithalata izin verdi. Vadeli dizel d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, crack spread daralmas\u0131 ve WTI\u2019da sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69506,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t