\u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n eyl\u00fclde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %25,7 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Art\u0131\u015fta elektronik talebinin s\u00fcrmesi etkili olurken, hem resmi hem de Caixin imalat PMI\u2019lar\u0131 yeniden 50\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve fabrika faaliyetlerinde belirginle\u015fmeye i\u015faret etti. D\u0131\u015f ticaret g\u00f6stergeleri de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: \u00c7in\u2019in 20 b\u00fcy\u00fck liman\u0131nda i\u015flenen ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck dwt (deadweight tonnage) miktar\u0131 a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %-0,7 iken eyl\u00fclde %7,2\u2019ye d\u00f6nd\u00fc; ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde uluslararas\u0131 kargo u\u00e7u\u015flar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme de %-1,4\u2019ten %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Fiyat g\u00f6stergeleri, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maliyetlerde toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Ana hammadde sat\u0131n alma fiyat\u0131 alt PMI\u2019\u0131 56,6\u2019dan 60,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, \u00fcretici fiyat\u0131 alt PMI\u2019\u0131 50,4\u2019ten 54,0\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fiyat band\u0131 mekanizmas\u0131 nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcketici fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131n T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun a\u011fustosta y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,8\u2019den eyl\u00fclde %1,0\u2019e hafif y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sanayi emtialar\u0131 ve metallerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u00fcrmesine pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019in hammadde sat\u0131n alma fiyat endeksinin 60,8\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve \u00fcretici fiyat alt PMI\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n 54,0\u2019a t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, girdi maliyetlerinin keskin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak \u00c7in\u2019in resmi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken hammadde alt endeksleri 60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri gibi sanayi metallerinde takip eden \u00e7eyrekte ortalama %5 ila %8\u2019lik getiriler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da uzun vadeli (long) vadeli kontratlar veya al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerinde de, \u00f6zellikle daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Yuan\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 kur vadeli i\u015flemlerinde dikkat \u00e7ekici f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130hracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde %25,7\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geni\u015fleme ve liman elle\u00e7leme hacminin %-0,7\u2019den %+7,2\u2019ye d\u00f6nmesi, genellikle d\u00f6viz giri\u015flerini destekleyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret dinamiklerine i\u015faret ediyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kurdaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden yararlanmak i\u00e7in USD\/CNH \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,0 d\u00fczeyindeki \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 enflasyonun politika ayarlamalar\u0131na alan b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, riskleri s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji ve sanayi hisse endekslerinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Uluslararas\u0131 kargo u\u00e7u\u015f aktivitesinin %3,6\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla da teyit edilen elektronik d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcndeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar i\u00e7in belirgin sekt\u00f6rel r\u00fczg\u00e2r arkas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin hammadde maliyetlerindeki oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rmaya devam etmesi nedeniyle, tedarik zinciri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek kontratlarda straddle pozisyonlar\u0131 veya koruyucu sat\u0131m (protective put) stratejileri s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek temkinli bir risk y\u00f6netimi ad\u0131m\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in\u2019de eyl\u00fclde ihracatta %25,7 art\u0131\u015f ve PMI\u2019larda 50 \u00fczeri toparlanma; liman\/kargo verileri g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Hammadde fiyat endeksleri s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: sanayi metalleri long, Yuan g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, endekslerde bull call\/koruma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t