{"id":69491,"date":"2026-10-12T03:56:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T03:56:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-heads-for-fourth-weekly-gain-as-japan-yields-slip-and-intervention-fears-hover-near-160\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T03:56:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T03:56:55","slug":"usd-jpy-heads-for-fourth-weekly-gain-as-japan-yields-slip-and-intervention-fears-hover-near-160","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-heads-for-fourth-weekly-gain-as-japan-yields-slip-and-intervention-fears-hover-near-160\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Japon tahvil getirilerindeki gerileme ve 160 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleriyle d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc pozitif e\u011filimle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 158,30 civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirirken Japonya devlet tahvili getirilerinin gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan Yen\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine y\u00f6neldi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 30 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan %3,153 zirvesinden %3,00\u2019a do\u011fru gerilerken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi 2002\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan %5,365\u2019ten d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan %5,248 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan fark, ABD getirilerini Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 225 baz puan \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi ve maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili Yen \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n

Dolar, petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon risklerinin Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir Fed ad\u0131m\u0131 daha beklentisini canl\u0131 tutmas\u0131yla destek buldu; ABD Dolar Endeksi g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 101,92 civar\u0131ndaki dipten sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k 102,30 seviyesinde yer ald\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool \u00fczerinden t\u00fcrev fiyatlamas\u0131, 27\u201328 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmedi\u011fine, ancak Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %85 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fckseldi; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti 4,6\u2019dan 4,7\u2019ye, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti 3,4\u2019ten 3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; oda\u011f\u0131n gelecek haftaki ABD T\u00dcFE verisine kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Japonya\u2019da ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sa\u011flarken, Yen ve enflasyonun izlenece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylem, petrol kaynakl\u0131 ithalat maliyeti riskleriyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi ve USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160\u2019a yak\u0131n seyretmesi m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleriyle ili\u015fkilendirildi.<\/p>\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n

M\u00fcdahale Tehdidi Alt\u0131nda T\u00fcrev Stratejisi ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/JPY paritesindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131, ancak 160,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fi konusunda son derece dikkatli kalmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 158,30 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, yakla\u015f\u0131k 225 baz puanl\u0131k geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckteki getiri spread\u2019leri kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funda, sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde Yen\u2019den \u00e7\u0131karak daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelir.<\/p>\n\n

Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinden gelebilecek ani m\u00fcdahale tehdidini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ad\u0131na spot pozisyonlar yerine d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. USD\/JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejileri kullanmak, devlet destekli ani sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir. Japon yetkililerin Yen \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti\u011finde tahvil ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli m\u00fcdahalelere ba\u015fvurma ge\u00e7mi\u015fi bulunuyor; bu da s\u0131k\u0131 risk limitlerini kritik h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n

\u0130\u015flem Planlar\u0131nda Makro Geli\u015fmeler ve Enerji Fiyat\u0131 Riskleri<\/h3>\n\n

Gelecek haftaki ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisini, enflasyonun Aral\u0131k\u2019ta Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmaya zorlay\u0131p zorlamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, beklentiyi a\u015fan daha s\u0131cak bir enflasyon verisi ABD getirilerini muhtemelen yeniden %5,365\u2019lik son zirveye do\u011fru itecektir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Ekim sonundaki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde de\u011fi\u015fen politika beklentilerinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n

K\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, yak\u0131n vadeli i\u015flem stratejilerimize dahil etmemiz gereken bir di\u011fer temel unsur. Japonya fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 ithal ediyor; bu da daha y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin \u00fclkenin d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini bozarak Yen\u2019i do\u011fal olarak zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc USD\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131yla birlikte enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyon almak, bu s\u00fcregelen makro bask\u0131y\u0131 yakalamaya y\u00f6nelik etkili bir ikili strateji i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY 158,30\u2019da; Japon tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ferken Yen zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve 4. haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fe gidiyor. 225 bp\u2019lik ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131 Dolar\u0131 destekliyor; Fed\u2019in Aral\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %85, 160\u2019ta m\u00fcdahale riski izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t