\u00c7in\u2019in merkez bankas\u0131, Pekin ile AB aras\u0131ndaki ticaret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrerken d\u00f6viz (FX) politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan bir belge yay\u0131mlad\u0131; CNY seviyesinin \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 reddederek ihracat kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 imalat sanayiindeki rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcne ba\u011flad\u0131. Metin, de\u011ferleme tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcrerken d\u00f6viz kurunun ticaret performans\u0131na katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde oldu\u011fu g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etse de, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131ya yan\u0131t olarak ayarlama yapmaya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 istekli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00f6stergeler taraf\u0131nda, BIS REER verileri RMB\u2019nin 2005\u2019ten 2015 sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini; ard\u0131ndan 2022 zirvesinden ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen dip seviyeye kadar %20 geriledi\u011fini ve bug\u00fcnk\u00fc seviyesine %6,5 toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. IMF tahminleri ise %12\u201320 band\u0131nda bir eksik de\u011ferlemeye i\u015faret ediyor; bu da paran\u0131n ucuz oldu\u011funu, ancak ihracat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn tek a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n bu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima ediyor. Son d\u00f6nemdeki resmi USD\/CNY fixing\u2019leri, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken dahi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir CNY tercihine i\u015faret ederken, EUR\/CNY ocak zirvesinin %10 alt\u0131nda; k\u0131sa vadede ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler i\u00e7in alan bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
—<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131na aktif bi\u00e7imde direnmesi nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00c7in Yuan\u0131\u2019na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son fixing\u2019ler, s\u00fcregelen k\u00fcresel ticaret anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131na ra\u011fmen Yuan\u2019\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirme konusunda net bir kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu politika duru\u015fu, Yuan\u2019a y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bir d\u00fczenleyici risk ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, Yuan\u2019\u0131n Reel Efektif D\u00f6viz Kuru 2022 zirvesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 geriledikten sonra s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma g\u00f6sterdi. IMF\u2019nin mevcutta %12 ila %20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda eksik de\u011ferleme tahmin etmesi ve \u00c7in\u2019in ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n son ticaret raporlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayl\u0131k 99 milyar dolarl\u0131k zirveler gibi rekor seviyelere ula\u015fmas\u0131, de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel bask\u0131n\u0131n belirgin oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n, uluslararas\u0131 ticaret m\u00fczakereleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kur i\u00e7in bu de\u011ferleme fark\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e olarak kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
—<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ocak ay\u0131 zirvelerine g\u00f6re %10\u2019dan fazla gerilemi\u015f olan EUR\/CNY \u00e7apraz\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. EUR\/CNY \u00fczerinde put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmak, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutarken ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyelden faydalanmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu strateji, istikrar kazanan \u00c7in imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik ayr\u0131\u015fmadan yararlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CNH paritesinde ise k\u0131sa vadeli put spread gibi bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound) stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir. G\u00fcnl\u00fck fixing\u2019ler \u00fczerindeki s\u0131k\u0131 kontrol\u00fcn, dolar-yuan kurunda beklenmedik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k. Bu kur trendinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etmek i\u00e7in Pekin\u2019den gelecek sanayi \u00fcretimi verilerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" PBoC, AB g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrerken CNY\u2019yi savundu; ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kurla de\u011fil rekabetle a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. IMF %12\u201320 eksik de\u011ferleme g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Fixing\u2019ler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Yuan mesaj\u0131 veriyor; EUR\/CNY ve USD\/CNH\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t