Kanada, eyl\u00fclde 68,3 bin istihdam kayb\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; piyasa 7 bin art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. Bu, a\u011fustostaki 41,7 binlik kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi ve 2026\u2019daki t\u00fcm net istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 silmi\u015f oldu. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, yakla\u015f\u0131k 53 bin ki\u015finin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnden ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 beklentilerle uyumlu bi\u00e7imde %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Kat\u0131l\u0131m de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015f olsayd\u0131 oran %6,8\u2019e yak\u0131n olacakt\u0131; bu da man\u015fet uyumun daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ve i\u015f arayan havuzuna dayanarak sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 28 Ekim\u2019de Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoC) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini k\u0131smalar\u0131 ve bir sonraki hamleyi aral\u0131\u011fa \u00f6telemeleriyle de\u011fi\u015fti. Politika faizi %2,25 seviyesinde ve Fed\u2019in %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131n\u0131n en az 1,5 puan alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; bu fark, eyl\u00fcl ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana USD\/CAD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekledi. ABD\u2019de Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi 47,6 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 46,3\u2019e gerilerken, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %5,25\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalarak USD\/CAD\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tuttu.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CAD, be\u015f dakikal\u0131k tek bir mumda 1,4250\u2019nin alt\u0131ndan 1,4300\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelere s\u0131\u00e7rayarak Nisan 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha sonra bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birini geri verse de 1,4250\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutundu; cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 1,4200 dip ve 1,4300 alt\u0131 tepe, 1 Ekim\u2019den bu yana band\u0131 tan\u0131ml\u0131yor. Hareket, 8 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 1,3750\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerindeki dipten ba\u015flayan t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 uzat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Zay\u0131f Kanada istihdam verisi ve geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD\u2019de s\u00fcregelen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 68,3 bin i\u015f kaybetmesi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn daralmas\u0131, BoC\u2019nin i\u00e7 dinamikler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 te\u015fvik yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelen sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
1,4200\u20131,4250 destek band\u0131na do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/CAD al\u0131m\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir; bu b\u00f6lge, piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki dalgalanmalara ra\u011fmen sa\u011flam kald\u0131. 1,4300 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvenin \u00fczerinde bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1,4500 seviyesine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivmelenmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Tarihsel olarak, Fed ile BoC aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 1,50 y\u00fczde puan\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CAD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve \u00e7ok ay\u0131 kapsayan y\u00fckseli\u015f trendleri olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n\n
28 Ekim BoC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k risklerini y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, do\u011frudan spot pozisyon yerine yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejileri kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentili (bullish) call spread al\u0131mlar\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,4300 \u00fczerine k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde getiriyi yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin beklenmedik \u015fekilde mevcut %5,25 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda sermayeyi korur.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019de bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinin %4,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,75\u2013%4,00 band\u0131nda veya daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerde daha uzun s\u00fcre tutaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015f, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcnden ayr\u0131lanlar hesaba kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u201cger\u00e7ek\u201d i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %6,8\u2019e yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu Kanada\u2019daki bozulmu\u015f ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Para politikas\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fmaya odakl\u0131 kalmak gerekiyor; zira paritedeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kanada\u2019da istihdam \u015foku USD\/CAD\u2019i sert yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: 68,3 bin kay\u0131p, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc daral\u0131rken i\u015fsizlik %6,5. BoC faiz beklentileri \u00f6teleniyor, Fed fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor; 1,4300 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,45 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69476,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t