EUR\/USD, y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvesinden %7\u2019den fazla geriledikten sonra 17 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 1,1161 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 geni\u015f Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi temas\u0131ndan, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n devlet borcundaki strese kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi 2 Ekim\u2019de %5,00\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye en son 2002\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Almanya tahvilleri \u00fczerindeki spread 150 baz puan\u0131 a\u015farak 2011-2012 kriz d\u00f6nemindeki fiyatlamay\u0131 and\u0131rd\u0131. Fransa yine de kendini finanse edebildi: 12 milyar euroluk ihalede, arz\u0131n iki kat\u0131ndan fazla talep geldi. Ancak fiyatlama \u00f6yle bozuldu ki Fransa, \u0130talya ve Yunanistan\u2019dan daha y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; \u0130talya-Almanya spreadleri de 130 baz puana yakla\u015ft\u0131 ve COVID-19 krizinden bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n\n
Yeniden fiyatlaman\u0131n arkas\u0131nda mali g\u00f6stergeler var: kamu borcu GSYH\u2019nin %120\u2019sine yakla\u015f\u0131yor, b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ve 2027\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 340 milyar euro bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131 bulunuyor; 2027 b\u00fct\u00e7esi bu y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,4 seviyesinden, a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019e \u00e7ekilmesini hedefliyor. ECB iki kez faiz art\u0131rarak Mevduat Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; enflasyon A\u011fustos\u2019taki %3,2\u2019den Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Ancak egemen tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Piyasada Mart\u2019a kadar ECB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 24 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 baz puandan 6 Ekim\u2019de 45 baz puan civar\u0131na geriledi; tahminler, Fransa-Almanya spreadindeki her ek 10 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n EUR\/USD\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryolarda 1,1100 ve 1,1000 seviyelerinin g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Euro \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z; hedef, 1,1100 ve 1,1000 gibi kritik destek seviyeleri olmal\u0131. \u0130statistikler EUR\/USD\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvesinden \u015fimdiden %7\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor ve Fransa-Almanya getiri fark\u0131nda (spread) olas\u0131 her geni\u015fleme bu e\u011filimi muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131sa (sell) kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yak\u0131n zamanda kritik 150 baz puan e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015fan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Fransa-Almanya spreadini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. 2011-2012 Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizine ait tarihsel veriler, spreadlerin bu \u00e7izgiyi ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tipik olarak %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu risk primi daha da geni\u015flerse, her ek 10 baz puanl\u0131k geni\u015fleme i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 gerilemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Son egemen bor\u00e7 verileri, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n kamu borcunun 3,2 trilyon euronun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak GSYH\u2019sinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %112\u2019sine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Avrupal\u0131 bankalar bu egemen bor\u00e7 stokunun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, Avrupa bankac\u0131l\u0131k hisseleri ve finans endekslerine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar\u0131n hedge edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeks opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmak, Frans\u0131z ve \u0130talyan finansal varl\u0131klar\u0131nda siyasi kaynakl\u0131 ani sat\u0131\u015flara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, piyasan\u0131n Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini zaten geri \u00e7ekmi\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Euro B\u00f6lgesi faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde %3,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da, finansal par\u00e7alanma riski merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 daha ileri g\u00f6t\u00fcrme kapasitesini ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevlerinde i\u015flem yapmak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u00e7ok daha temkinli bir para politikas\u0131 patikas\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, \u00f6zellikle \u0130talya gibi y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk ta\u015f\u0131yan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerde\u2014Almanya \u00fczerindeki spreadlerin 130 baz puana do\u011fru geni\u015fledi\u011fi\u2014bula\u015fma (contagion) i\u015faretlerini izlemeliyiz. Spreadlerdeki bu geni\u015fleme, yerel bir Frans\u0131z maliye sorununu t\u00fcm Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in sistemik bir riske d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, g\u00f6rece de\u011fer (relative value) i\u015flemleri kurulabilir; Euro\u2019nun ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro\u2019da alarm zilleri: EUR\/USD 17 ay\u0131n dibinde. Fransa bor\u00e7 stresi 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 %5\u2019e, OAT-Bund spreadini 150 bp \u00fcst\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; risk bula\u015f\u0131rken ECB s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi eriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69462,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t