{"id":69455,"date":"2026-10-12T02:52:54","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T02:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/investment-bank-sees-september-core-cpi-easing-as-supercore-cools-while-inflation-risks-persist\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T02:52:54","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T02:52:54","slug":"investment-bank-sees-september-core-cpi-easing-as-supercore-cools-while-inflation-risks-persist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/investment-bank-sees-september-core-cpi-easing-as-supercore-cools-while-inflation-risks-persist\/","title":{"rendered":"Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131, s\u00fcper \u00e7ekirdekteki so\u011fumayla Eyl\u00fcl \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019de yava\u015flama beklerken enflasyon risklerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bir yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131ndaki ABD ekonomi ekibi, eyl\u00fcl \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,20\u2019ye gerilemesini bekliyor; yava\u015flamaya daha zay\u0131f \u00e7ekirdek hizmetler ve \u201cs\u00fcper\u00e7ekirdek\u201d \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck edecek. A\u011fustostaki y\u00fckseli\u015fe katk\u0131 verdikten sonra s\u00fcper\u00e7ekirdek %0,24\u2019te \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek hizmetlerin ayl\u0131k %0,22 gelmesi beklenirken, iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (discretionary) hizmetlerin enflasyona bir miktar diren\u00e7 kataca\u011f\u0131; konaklaman\u0131n %1,4 artaca\u011f\u0131 ve u\u00e7ak biletlerinin %2,1 y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. \u00c7ekirdek mallar ve bar\u0131nman\u0131n (shelter) her ikisinin de hafif toparlanmas\u0131, ara\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131 ve yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerden kaynaklanan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131r\u0131rken, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019yi genel hatlar\u0131yla %2,4\u2019te yatay b\u0131rakacak.<\/p>\n\n

Tercih edilen g\u00f6sterge olan \u00e7ekirdek PCE taraf\u0131nda bu tahmin, a\u011fustostaki %0,25\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda, ayl\u0131k %0,23\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. Daha uzun vadede \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,4\u2019te dip yapt\u0131ktan sonra 2026 sonunda y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131; man\u015fetin ise may\u0131sta %4,2 ile zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 seyirle 2026 sonu itibar\u0131yla %3,9\u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Enflasyonda ilerlemenin 2027 ortas\u0131na do\u011fru yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

K\u0131sa Vadeli Enflasyon E\u011filimleri ve Piyasa Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Yakla\u015fan eyl\u00fcl enflasyon verilerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda %0,20\u2019ye yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,4\u2019te sabit tutarak fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na, ancak tamamen bertaraf edilmedi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in bir sonraki politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n

Bar\u0131nma maliyetleri ve ara\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma bekliyoruz; bunun, s\u00fcper\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %0,24\u2019e yava\u015flamas\u0131yla dengelenmesi olas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 kaymalar\u0131, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcamalar ve gayrimenkul borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanarak de\u011ferlendirebilir. U\u00e7ak bileti ve konaklama maliyetlerinde beklenen s\u0131ras\u0131yla ayl\u0131k %2,1 ve %1,4 art\u0131\u015flar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu kalemlerde ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) yapmak da yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik Risk, Man\u015fet Enflasyon ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerini varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131nda oynak tutmas\u0131yla, man\u015fet enflasyon enerji \u015foklar\u0131na y\u00fcksek derecede duyarl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel aksamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde, man\u015fet enflasyonun 2026 sonuna do\u011fru %3,9\u2019a t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, enerji emtialar\u0131nda uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya y\u00fckselen getirilere kar\u015f\u0131 tampon olu\u015fturmak \u00fczere Hazine (Treasury) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Fed daha kademeli bir faiz patikas\u0131na ge\u00e7mi\u015f durumda; sonbahar politika ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan politika faizi hedefi h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda %4,75 band\u0131nda bulunuyor. Ayl\u0131k %0,23\u2019l\u00fck bir \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinin, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n seyrini k\u00f6kl\u00fc bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, agresif faiz indirimi bahisleri azalt\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun yerine, enflasyondaki ilerleme 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar dalgal\u0131 seyrederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli faiz s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde n\u00f6trden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (neutral-to-bearish) stratejileri tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar nefes alacak m\u0131? ABD eyl\u00fcl \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE %0,20\u2019ye yava\u015flayabilir; s\u00fcper\u00e7ekirdek %0,24. \u00c7ekirdek PCE %0,23. U\u00e7ak+konaklama yukar\u0131 risk, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek %2,4 yatay; man\u015fet jeopoliti\u011fe duyarl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t