USD\/CAD, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Loonie) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4220\u2019ye geriledi. Bu hareket, ABD\u2013Kanada faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131ndan destek buldu. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n iki y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, ABD e\u015fde\u011ferinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 152 baz puan alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye, fark\u0131n \u015eubat 2025\u2019ten bu yana en geni\u015f oldu\u011fu Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc 158 baz puana k\u0131yasla daha dar. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Kanada\u2019n\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 istihdam raporu var: \u0130stihdam\u0131n, 41.700\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 7.000 artmas\u0131 beklenirken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 tahmini %6,4\u2019ten %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. S\u00f6z konusu veriler, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini \u015fekillendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Petroldeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ABD taraf\u0131ndaki \u015fahin politika sinyallerine ra\u011fmen Loonie\u2019nin deste\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 projeksiyonlar\u0131, fark\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 175 baz puandan 200 baz puana y\u00fckselip 2026 boyunca da s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ederken, Kanada OIS fiyatlamas\u0131 gelecek y\u0131l eyl\u00fcle kadar BoC\u2019den neredeyse d\u00f6rt faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha beklendi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. ABD\u2019de ise Fed Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Waller\u2019\u0131n tonu FXS Speechtracker\u2019da ortalama 7,2\/10\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 8\/10 olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc; FXS Fed Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi 0,42 art\u0131\u015fla 138,34\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/CAD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; RSI (14) 65 civar\u0131nda. Destekler 1,4125, 1,4015 ve 1,3895; diren\u00e7 ise 1,4355 b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ve Kanada aras\u0131ndaki tahvil faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n 152 baz puana hafif\u00e7e daralmas\u0131yla USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,4220 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilme, 7.000 ki\u015filik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi beklenen Kanada istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde stratejik bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor. Ancak genel e\u011filim, belirgin politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle h\u00e2l\u00e2 ABD dolar\u0131 lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde e\u011fimli.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel veriler, getiri fark\u0131 150 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda USD\/CAD\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi olu\u015fturma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015f sinyali vermesi ve getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar 200 baz puana geni\u015flemesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle paritenin 1,4500 hedefini g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu geni\u015fleyen fark, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in dolar al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) almak ya da uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 cazip bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Buna ek olarak, tarihsel olarak emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik risklerin azalmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle uluslararas\u0131 petrol g\u00f6stergeleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n ihracat gelirlerinin de olumsuz etkilenmesi olas\u0131. \u0130\u00e7 ekonomik aktivite \u00fczerindeki bu bask\u0131, pariteye y\u00f6nelik y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentimizi destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Taktik uygulama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 1,4125 seviyesindeki ilk deste\u011fe yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde al\u0131m emirleri olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 65\u2019te olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ancak hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 1,4355 direncinin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 1,4500 hedefimize do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dikkat: USD\/CAD 1,4220\u2019ye sarkt\u0131; Loonie, ABD\u2013Kanada getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n 152 bp\u2019a daralmas\u0131ndan destek buldu. G\u00f6zler Kanada istihdam\u0131nda; petrol zay\u0131f, Fed \u015fahin. Diren\u00e7 1,4355; hedef 1,4500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t