Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ancak ABD Hazine tahvil getirilerinin g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek negatife d\u00f6nmesiyle yeniden 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Son Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) tutanaklar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oybirli\u011fiyle destek verildi\u011fini ortaya koyarken, gelecekteki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u201c\u00f6nleyici\u201d nitelikte mi olaca\u011f\u0131 yoksa daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika patikas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131 say\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda alt\u0131n 4.115 dolar seviyesinde, %1,16 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.066 dolara kadar geriledi.<\/p>\n\n
Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131, bu ayki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %19\u2019a, faizin sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ise %80\u2019e fiyatl\u0131yor. Faiz cephesinde ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi, 24 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %5,365\u2019i test ettikten sonra 1 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %5,27\u2019ye indi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ise %0,40 artarak 102,24\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Petrol de zay\u0131flad\u0131; WTI %1,66 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 88,45 dolara geriledi. Teknik olarak destek 4.100 dolar civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; diren\u00e7ler 4.200 dolar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra 100 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 4.267 ve 4.331 dolar seviyeleri. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc izlenecek seviyeler ise 3.996 dolar ve y\u0131l i\u00e7i (YTD) dip olan 3.941 dolar.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli pozisyonlar i\u00e7in kritik bir e\u015fik olarak 4.100 dolar seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 bu deste\u011fin alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa, 3.996 dolar civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nemli yaz diplerine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. K\u0131sa vadeli kontratlarda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in 4.200 dolara do\u011fru k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde put opsiyonu almak veya k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu temkinli duru\u015f, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %5,27 ile olduk\u00e7a k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 seyrini korudu\u011fu mevcut makroekonomik ortam taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak, tahvil getirileri \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveler yak\u0131n\u0131nda seyrederken, getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) kurumsal portf\u00f6ylerden gelen yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabiliyor. Federal Rezerv\u2019in y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemleri i\u00e7in bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 masada tutmas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, de\u011ferli metalde belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00f6zellikle \u00c7in\u2019in yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren al\u0131mlar\u0131yla liderlik etti\u011fi k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (WGC) g\u00fcncel verileri, merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fczlerce ton arz \u00e7ekti\u011fini ve bunun tarihsel olarak sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu uzun vadeli talebi bant i\u00e7i stratejiler kurmak i\u00e7in kullanabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin fiyatlar\u0131n 3.940 dolar band\u0131na do\u011fru sarkmas\u0131 halinde toparlanmaya oynayan, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesi de yak\u0131n vadeli enflasyon beklentilerini yumu\u015fatarak, yak\u0131nda ABD tahvil getirileri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 azaltabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni gibi yakla\u015fan ekonomik g\u00f6stergeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Genel i\u015flem hesaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden esnek kontrat b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131, bu kritik veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda beklenen y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k dalgalar\u0131na h\u0131zl\u0131 uyum sa\u011flamay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik saatler: XAU\/USD 4.066\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra tahvil getirilerindeki geri \u00e7ekilmeyle 4.100 \u00fcst\u00fcne toparland\u0131. FOMC ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131; piyasa art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %19. Destek 4.100, diren\u00e7 4.200-4.331. Fed belirsiz, volatilite y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69402,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t