{"id":69401,"date":"2026-10-08T04:51:37","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T04:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/us-yields-hit-multi-decade-highs-as-curve-signals-steer-dollar-direction-ahead-of-us-inflation-data\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T04:51:37","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T04:51:37","slug":"us-yields-hit-multi-decade-highs-as-curve-signals-steer-dollar-direction-ahead-of-us-inflation-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/us-yields-hit-multi-decade-highs-as-curve-signals-steer-dollar-direction-ahead-of-us-inflation-data\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD tahvil getirileri, getiri e\u011frisinin sinyallerinin ABD enflasyon verisi \u00f6ncesi dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirlemesiyle onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi, Fed\u2019in g\u00fcnl\u00fck verilerinde %5,31\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak May\u0131s 2002\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Haziran 2007 zirvesini a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra bu seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fckseli\u015f, bu y\u00fczy\u0131lda herhangi bir \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f oldu. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 102,00\u2019nin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye en son Nisan 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Uzun vadeli faizlerdeki son y\u00fckseli\u015f hamlesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar fiyatlamalardan ilave Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00e7eyrek puan\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015f olsa da DXY, 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki dip seviyesine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 y\u00fckseldi. Dolar\u2019\u0131n 27 Ocak\u2019taki dip seviyesinden 2 Ekim\u2019e kadar 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 1,30 puan artarken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 1,04 puan y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k TIPS faizleri 1,02 puan artarken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k breakeven enflasyon 0,02 puan y\u00fckseldi. Fed, 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de politika faizini %3,75-%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n\n

25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 0,03 puan artarken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131kta art\u0131\u015f 0,14 puan, 30 y\u0131ll\u0131kta ise 0,17 puan oldu; vadeli i\u015flemler 28 Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %26 olas\u0131l\u0131k verirken Eyl\u00fcl 2027 itibar\u0131yla politika faizini yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,68 civar\u0131nda i\u015faret ediyor. Bu seviye 30 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,80\u2019den gerilemi\u015f olsa da A\u011fustos sonundaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,05 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Piyasan\u0131n ima etti\u011fi 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi A\u011fustos sonundan bu yana %2,3-%2,4 band\u0131nda kald\u0131. 2026\u2019da, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselip 2s10s spreadinin en az 0,03 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131 18 g\u00fcn oldu; DXY bu g\u00fcnlerin 14\u2019\u00fcnde y\u00fckseldi ve ortalama +%0,20 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131. Spreadin 0,03 veya daha fazla geni\u015fledi\u011fi 18 g\u00fcnde ise DXY yedi kez y\u00fckseldi ve ortalama -%0,08 oldu. 9 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den bu yana DXY\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc eurodan, yakla\u015f\u0131k sekizde biri ise yenden geldi; EUR\/USD, 14 Eyl\u00fcl ile Pazartesi aras\u0131nda ABD\u2013Almanya 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,4 puan a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. DXY 20 A\u011fustos ve 10 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 98,50 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ift dip olu\u015fturdu; Pazartesi yakla\u015f\u0131k 102,50\u2019yi test etti ve \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc tekrar bu seviyeye geldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1150\u2019yi; DXY\u2019de 101,50 ve 102,50 seviyelerini; ayr\u0131ca Stoch RSI\u2019de EUR\/USD i\u00e7in 20 alt\u0131 (\u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r) ve DXY i\u00e7in 80 \u00fczeri (yakla\u015f\u0131k 22 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den beri) e\u015fiklerini izliyor. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA Eyl\u00fcl ortas\u0131nda 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; her ikisi de spotun yakla\u015f\u0131k iki puan alt\u0131nda. S\u0131radaki test 14 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE verisi. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00e7ekirdek okuma, 28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek 2 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n yeniden 10 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesini sa\u011flayabilecek bir kataliz\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Brent 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 yedinci ay\u0131na girmi\u015f durumda ve b\u00fcy\u00fck Hazine tahvili ihalelerinden gelen arz da arka planda etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Getiri E\u011frileri ve Dolar Korelasyonunu \u0130zlemek<\/h3>\n\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir sonraki d\u00f6viz i\u015flemlerimizin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli ve uzun vadeli ABD Hazine tahvili faizleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiyi yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin 24 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesi olan %5,31\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 man\u015fetleri ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; ancak kal\u0131c\u0131 bir Dolar rallisini beslemek i\u00e7in 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak istatistikler, aktif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz ile Dolar Endeksi aras\u0131ndaki korelasyonun s\u0131kl\u0131kla 0,70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn daha ger\u00e7ek s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisinin k\u0131sa vadeli faizler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Bekledi\u011fimiz ana kataliz\u00f6r 14 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi verisi. Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki bir \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon okumas\u0131, 28 Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin mevcut %26 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bunun olmas\u0131 halinde ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemdeki 102,50 tavan\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun da uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in net bir giri\u015f sinyali vermesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Kritik Destek Seviyeleri, Avrupa Kaynakl\u0131 Bask\u0131lar ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

E\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak, Avrupa\u2019daki mali endi\u015feler aras\u0131nda 1,1150 civar\u0131ndaki kritik deste\u011fe yak\u0131n seyreden EUR\/USD\u2019yi izlemeliyiz. Son d\u00f6nemdeki Dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc, Fransa b\u00fct\u00e7esine ili\u015fkin kayg\u0131lar ve Avrupa tahvil spreadlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde besledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu Avrupa bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesi halinde sert bir ters hareket riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Dolar Endeksi g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 101,50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda yaparsa, son y\u00fckseli\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu kabul etmeli ve buna g\u00f6re risk maruziyetimizi ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n

Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 102,50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizin gerilemesiyle olu\u015fabilecek \u201cyanl\u0131\u015f k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u201d ihtimaline de dikkat etmek gerekiyor. Bu uyumsuzluk, rallinin faiz beklentileriyle desteklenmedi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek y\u00fckseli\u015f tezini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Brent petrol\u00fcn 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fi ve kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bu ortamda, se\u00e7ti\u011fimiz i\u015flem platformlar\u0131nda hassas risk y\u00f6netimi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmak hayati \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz %5,31 ile 24 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde; DXY 102 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Kal\u0131c\u0131 dolar rallisi i\u00e7in 2 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 \u015fart. 14 Ekim T\u00dcFE, 28 Ekim Fed\u2019i yeniden fiyatlat\u0131p 102,50 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69400,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t