{"id":69399,"date":"2026-10-08T03:58:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T03:58:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/thailand-inflation-hits-five-month-high-as-yield-gap-keeps-pressure-on-baht\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T03:58:48","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T03:58:48","slug":"thailand-inflation-hits-five-month-high-as-yield-gap-keeps-pressure-on-baht","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/thailand-inflation-hits-five-month-high-as-yield-gap-keeps-pressure-on-baht\/","title":{"rendered":"Tayland\u2019da Enflasyon Be\u015f Ay\u0131n Zirvesine \u00c7\u0131kt\u0131; Faiz Fark\u0131 Baht \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131y\u0131 S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tayland\u2019da Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8 artarak Bloomberg konsens\u00fcs\u00fc olan %3,1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; A\u011fustos\u2019taki %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu, Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olurken Tayland Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoT) %1\u2013%3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2026 enflasyon tahminini %1,5\u2013%2,5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan %1,8\u2013%2,2\u2019ye revize etti; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana enflasyon ortalamas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 seviyesinde. Y\u00fckseli\u015f; enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011flan\u0131rken, akaryak\u0131t\u0131n enerji tedarik zinciri aksamalar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyretmesi ve sel kaynakl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn hasar\u0131n\u0131n g\u0131da maliyetlerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla birlikte arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

Para politikas\u0131 etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirildi. Enflasyonun b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde arz kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ile orta vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin ise kontroll\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilerek politika faizinin %1,00\u2019de uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. FX piyasas\u0131nda USD\/THB, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gev\u015feme ve ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flaman\u0131n da etkisiyle %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 33,62\u2019ye geriledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n baht i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi vurguland\u0131; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili ile 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Tayland devlet tahvili aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 291 baz puana \u00e7\u0131karak son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en geni\u015f seviyesine y\u00fckseldi ve THB cinsi varl\u0131klar\u0131n cazibesini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Kal\u0131c\u0131 Enflasyon Ortam\u0131nda Baht G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\n

Eyl\u00fcl enflasyon verisinin enerji maliyetleri ve son selin etkisiyle y\u00fckselen g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tayland baht\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ra\u011fmen, talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Tayland Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizini %1,00\u2019da sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yerel para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Getiri Fark\u0131 Riskleri ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvilleri ile 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Tayland tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n 291 baz puana kadar geni\u015flemesi, baht a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir risk yarat\u0131yor. Bu, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclen en geni\u015f fark olup, k\u00fcresel sermayeyi Tayland varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirme e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Tarihsel olarak getiri fark\u0131 250 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, baht\u0131n maj\u00f6r para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in USD\/THB kurunda toparlanmaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; kur son olarak 33,62 ile ge\u00e7ici bir dip seviyeye gerilemi\u015fti. Baht\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/THB \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlarda uzun pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz Tayland enflasyonu: T\u00dcFE Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %2,8 ile beklenti alt\u0131 ama Nisan\u2019dan beri zirvede. Arz \u015foklar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken BoT faizi %1\u2019de kalabilir; 291 bp getiri fark\u0131 baht\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69398,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t