Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde toparlanma g\u00f6stergeleri, euro zay\u0131flarken bile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu; y\u00fckseli\u015fe imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 eyl\u00fclde d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde kal\u0131rken, fabrika \u00fcretimi yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. Yeni sipari\u015fler ve biriken i\u015fler artmaya devam ederek, maliye politikas\u0131 endi\u015feleri ve ECB\u2019nin daha g\u00fcvercin tonu kur g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bask\u0131lasa da Almanya ve b\u00f6lge genelinde talebin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
Eyl\u00fcl ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana EUR\u2019un nominal efektif d\u00f6viz kuru, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler ve ECB\u2019den bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen %1,4 geriledi; yetkililerin y\u00fcksek k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar politika beklentilerini yeniden fiyatlad\u0131. Y\u0131l sonu ECB faiz beklentileri karar \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin alt\u0131na inerek para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, Fransa 4. \u00e7eyrekte yasala\u015fmas\u0131 beklenen mali konsolidasyon planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Volatilite piyasalar\u0131nda, OAT gerilimlerinin FX\u2019e 2011\u20132012 benzeri bir ta\u015fma etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi: OAT vadeli i\u015flemlerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7rasa da 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen EURUSD volatilitesi may\u0131stan bu yana band\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n tek para birimini destekleyemedi\u011fi dikkat \u00e7ekici bir ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130malat faaliyetleri diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterse de euro son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flad\u0131; EUR\/USD paritesi bu ekimde 1,0600 seviyesine do\u011fru geriledi. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euroda ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeline pozisyon alarak bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan faydalanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Kur taraf\u0131ndaki bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 engellemek amac\u0131yla daha destekleyici bir duru\u015fa y\u00f6nelmesiyle y\u0131l sonu faiz beklentilerinin gerilemesinden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 4. \u00e7eyrekte devreye girecek mali konsolidasyon ad\u0131mlar\u0131 devlet tahvilleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek, Fransa-Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 78 baz puan civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bu mali r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n, eurodaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu trendden yararlanmak i\u00e7in, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri yakalarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak \u00fczere EUR\/USD \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde euro vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f yapmak veya ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spreadleri (bear put spread) kullanmak da bu kal\u0131c\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131dan faydalanmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir y\u00f6ntem sunabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcye tak\u0131lmadan daha geni\u015f makro trende paralel kalmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Dikkat \u00e7ekici \u015fekilde, euro i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilite \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131; EUR\/USD\u2019de 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck tarihsel volatilite m\u00fctevaz\u0131 %6,2 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131, opsiyonlar\u0131n g\u00f6rece ucuz kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arak t\u00fcrev stratejileri i\u00e7in cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sunuyor. Tahvil piyasalar\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; egemen tahvil getirilerindeki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar h\u0131zla d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc imalat verilerine ra\u011fmen euro \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc: PMI d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinde, \u00fcretim be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda. Ancak g\u00fcvercin ECB ve Fransa mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilitede EUR\/USD putlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t