USD\/JPY, temmuz sonlar\u0131nda Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n JPY\u2019ye koordineli destek vermesinin ard\u0131ndan sert d\u00fc\u015ferek, carry trade i\u015flemlerinde hangi para birimlerinin fonlama baca\u011f\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131labilece\u011fine dair yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeyi tetikledi. Parite daha sonra eyl\u00fcl ba\u015f\u0131nda herhangi bir resmi ad\u0131m olmaks\u0131z\u0131n yeniden geriledi; bu durum tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, volatilite y\u00fckseldi\u011finde yenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir fonlama se\u00e7ene\u011fi olarak g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcpheleri art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Bunu takiben JPY, USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ivme kaybetti ve alternatif aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131 azald\u0131. Yine de Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 politika ad\u0131m\u0131, beklentilere paralel bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 getirdi; buna kar\u015f\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesi, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha az \u015fahin kald\u0131. Genel patika kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ve Japon faizlerindeki bu yava\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015f, yenin carry trade fonlama para birimi olarak cazibesini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Japon Yeni\u2019nin, carry trade i\u015flemlerinde ucuz fonlama kayna\u011f\u0131 olma cazibesini kademeli bi\u00e7imde yitirmesiyle d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda belirgin bir kayma g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Temmuz ve eyl\u00fclde USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan acil panik havas\u0131 da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Yen\u2019e i\u015faret eden temel e\u011filim h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor. BoJ\u2019un faizleri kademeli art\u0131rma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc nedeniyle, daha y\u00fcksek volatilitenin h\u00e2kim olaca\u011f\u0131 yeni bir ortama haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcncel piyasa verileri, \u00f6zellikle BoJ\u2019un politika faizini %0,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 ve %0,5\u2019e do\u011fru ilave art\u0131\u015f sinyali vermesiyle ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu spread\u2019in %1 kadar daralmas\u0131 bile carry trade k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerimize benzer geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 pozisyon \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmelerini tetikleyebiliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daralan getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n USD\/JPY paritesi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na USD\/JPY\u2019de basit, korunmas\u0131z \u201cal-tut\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131ndan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bunun yerine, \u00f6zellikle 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %12 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya put gibi opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmak daha uygun olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, s\u00fcrpriz\/\u00f6nceden duyurulmam\u0131\u015f merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerine a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00f6n riskini art\u0131rmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca fonlama aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi di\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili para birimlerine kayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Mevcut i\u015flemler i\u00e7in, sermayeyi korumak ad\u0131na 140,00 seviyesindeki kritik psikolojik destek e\u015fi\u011finin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) emirleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Esnek kalarak ve opsiyonlarla riskten korunma kullanarak, k\u00fcresel carry trade dinamiklerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimi daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 y\u00f6netebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY\u2019de temmuz-eyl\u00fcl sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, yenin carry trade fonlamas\u0131nda sorgulanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. BoJ\u2019un kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 spread\u2019i daralt\u0131yor; volatilite art\u0131yor. Straddle\/put, stop-loss 140 alt\u0131; CHF alternatifi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69373,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t