Singapurlu bir bankadaki stratejistler, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ABD ekonomisinin teknoloji ve yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) sekt\u00f6rlerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc maruziyetinden kaynaklanan yap\u0131sal bir destek ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; bunun da b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve verimlili\u011fi destekledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6yledi. Ancak son d\u00f6nemdeki rallinin ard\u0131ndan, gelen veriler ve politika ileti\u015fiminin daha s\u0131k\u0131 parasal duru\u015fun arkas\u0131ndaki ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadede ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ektiler.<\/p>\n\n
Daha yumu\u015fak istihdam piyasas\u0131 sinyallerine ve yetkililer enflasyona odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de daha sab\u0131rl\u0131, veriye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) duru\u015funa i\u015faret ettiler. Piyasalar h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7ten biraz fazla Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak yakla\u015fan enflasyon verileri temel fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirse bu beklenti a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilir. Daha y\u00fcksek uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 zaten s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; bu da politika faizinde ek art\u0131\u015f ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak yeni Fed art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in e\u015fi\u011fi y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemcilerinin, teknoloji ve yapay zek\u00e2 sekt\u00f6rlerinden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc deste\u011fe ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131nda (USD) y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD teknoloji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne akan devasa sermaye, para birimi i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir yap\u0131sal taban olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. Bununla birlikte, bu y\u00fcksek seviyelerden k\u0131sa vadeli yeni rallilerin pe\u015finden gitmek artan risk bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Son ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler, ABD i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,1 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ve istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin agresif beklentilerini geri \u00e7ekmesini bekliyoruz. Yakla\u015fan enflasyon raporlar\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu teyit ederse, USD\u2019deki son g\u00fcc\u00fcn kilit dayanaklar\u0131ndan biri muhtemelen zay\u0131flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili getirileri, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 kendi ba\u015f\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma g\u00f6revini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zaten yerine getirdi. Bu \u201ckendili\u011finden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u201d dinami\u011fi, agresif resm\u00ee politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131na duyulan ihtiyac\u0131 azaltarak s\u00fcrpriz faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in e\u015fik seviyesini y\u00fckseltiyor. Getiri hareketlerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira getirilerde olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme, USD\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemciler i\u00e7in, k\u0131r\u0131lma (breakout) stratejilerinden uzakla\u015f\u0131p bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) kurgulara veya USD rallilerini sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lama (fade) yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. USD paritelerinde ay\u0131 (bear) call spread gibi opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 kullanmak, para biriminin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelinden faydalan\u0131rken riski y\u00f6netmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, ABD\u2019ye k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece daha \u015fahin kalan di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerine odaklanmak en net f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" S\u00fcrpriz uyar\u0131: Dolar\u0131n AI\/teknoloji kaynakl\u0131 yap\u0131sal deste\u011fi s\u00fcrse de ralli sonras\u0131 alan daral\u0131yor. Zay\u0131flayan istihdam, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 enflasyon ve y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri Fed art\u0131\u015f e\u015fi\u011fini y\u00fckseltiyor. \u00c7are: range\/fade stratejileri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t