{"id":69362,"date":"2026-10-08T02:51:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T02:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/markets-steady-as-le-pen-fiscal-plan-narrows-french-spreads-yen-slips-as-us-yields-stay-high\/"},"modified":"2026-10-08T02:51:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T02:51:25","slug":"markets-steady-as-le-pen-fiscal-plan-narrows-french-spreads-yen-slips-as-us-yields-stay-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/markets-steady-as-le-pen-fiscal-plan-narrows-french-spreads-yen-slips-as-us-yields-stay-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar yatay seyrederken, Le Pen\u2019in mali plan\u0131 Fransa tahvil spreadlerini daraltt\u0131; ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek kal\u0131nca yen geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Marine Le Pen\u2019in gelecek ilkbahar se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesinde Fransa i\u00e7in mali hedeflerini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar dengelendi. Plan, 18 ay i\u00e7inde birincil dengeyi hedeflerken; a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin %5,4\u2019\u00fcnden 2030\u2019a kadar %3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na, 2032\u2019de ise %2,5\u2019in alt\u0131na indirilmesini ve gelecek y\u0131l %121 olmas\u0131 beklenen bor\u00e7\/GSYH oran\u0131n\u0131n 2032\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %112\u2019ye \u00e7ekilmesini, anayasal bir \u201calt\u0131n kural\u201d ile desteklenmi\u015f \u015fekilde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca 2032\u2019ye kadar net 140 milyar avroluk tasarrufun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra en az 30 milyar avroluk vergi indirimlerinin ana hatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k OAT-swap spread\u2019i yakla\u015f\u0131k 130 bp\u2019den 117 bp\u2019ye daral\u0131rken, EUR\/USD 1,12\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerinden 1,1250\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi; Brent\u2019in 97 $\/varili test ettikten sonra 101 $\/varilin \u00fczerine toparlanmas\u0131yla euro yeniden gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1230\u2019a indi. EUR\/GBP oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 0,8455\u2019e \u00e7evirdi.<\/p>\n\n

Yen, 2026 mali y\u0131l\u0131nda ikinci, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir ek b\u00fct\u00e7e olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerle zay\u0131flad\u0131; USD\/JPY 158\u2019den 15,8\u2019e y\u00fckselirken 159,04 ve 160,39 seviyelerinde diren\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Dikkatler 39 milyar dolarl\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesine \u00e7evrildi; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirisi ge\u00e7en haftaki %5,34\u2019e k\u0131yasla %5,31 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, piyasalar Ekim ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in art arda ad\u0131m atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor ve FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 izlenecek. Hindistan\u2019da RBI, A\u011fustos T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %4,82 gelmesi sonras\u0131 politika faizini 25 bp art\u0131rarak %5,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; 2027 mali y\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon tahminini %5\u2019ten %5,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %4,3\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 %4,4 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini, Nisan\u2013Haziran d\u00f6neminde %7,8\u2019in ard\u0131ndan %6,7\u2019den %7,1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. USD\/INR 96,53\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Br\u00fcksel, Corporate Resource for Europe (Core) \u00f6nerisi kapsam\u0131nda geliri 100 milyon avronun \u00fczerinde olan AB \u015firketlerine y\u00f6nelik bir harc\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Enerji, Euro ve Kur Riskinden Korunma Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda t\u0131rmanan gerilimlerle Brent ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 101 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 nedeniyle enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, euronun toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n mali \u00f6nerilerinden gelen ge\u00e7ici rahatlamaya ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD paritesini 1,1230 civar\u0131nda tutuyor. Jeopolitik risklerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tek para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme tehdidi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarla euro pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge etmeleri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Kur cephesinde Japon yeninin de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Japonya\u2019da olas\u0131 bir ek b\u00fct\u00e7eye ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY 158\u2013159 band\u0131n\u0131 test ediyor. Paritenin 159,04\u2019teki yak\u0131n teknik direnci a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde, 160,39\u2019daki kritik seviyeye do\u011fru alan a\u00e7\u0131labilir. Yurt i\u00e7i mali geni\u015fleme planlar\u0131n\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131n\u0131 karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Tahvil Piyasas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Geli\u015fen Piyasa Riskleri<\/h3>\n\n

ABD tahvil piyasas\u0131 bug\u00fcn, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisinin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvesi olan %5,31 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle kritik bir testle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. 39 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihale ve yakla\u015fan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ile piyasalar, Ekim\u2019de ilave faiz ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sinyale olduk\u00e7a hassas. Hen\u00fcz yeni marjinal al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n devreye girmedi\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek getiriler senaryosuna pozisyon almak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131 veya Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Geli\u015fen piyasalarda Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u00fckselen enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in politika faizini %5,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n rupi zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor ve USD\/INR 96,53 ile tarih\u00ee dip seviyelere yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yerel faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n para birimini desteklemekte yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Yak\u0131n vadede rupidaki olas\u0131 ilave de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla USD\/INR t\u00fcrevlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalar Le Pen\u2019in mali \u201calt\u0131n kural\u201d plan\u0131yla sakinle\u015fti: OAT spread darald\u0131, euro petrol bask\u0131s\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekildi. Yen zay\u0131flad\u0131, ABD tahvilleri kritik. RBI faiz art\u0131rd\u0131; hedge ve opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69361,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t