{"id":69296,"date":"2026-10-07T06:51:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T06:51:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ueda-signals-conditional-tightening-as-usd-jpy-holds-158-markets-price-october-hike-odds\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T06:51:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T06:51:36","slug":"ueda-signals-conditional-tightening-as-usd-jpy-holds-158-markets-price-october-hike-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ueda-signals-conditional-tightening-as-usd-jpy-holds-158-markets-price-october-hike-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Ueda\u2019dan Ko\u015fullu S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma Mesaj\u0131: USD\/JPY 158 Seviyesinde; Piyasalar Ekim Ay\u0131 Faiz Art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u0130htimalini Fiyatl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda, 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kapsaml\u0131 konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc bant i\u00e7inde kalarak 158,00\u2019in hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. T\u00fcrev piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, 29\u201330 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Ueda, ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n ekonomiye, fiyatlara ve finansal ko\u015fullara ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 h\u00e2len destekleyici olarak nitelendirirken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere bask\u0131n h\u00e2le gelmeye ba\u015flarsa kurulun faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendirece\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n\n

Japon yetkililer, Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert bir duru\u015f sinyali de verdi. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama\u2019n\u0131n 2 Ekim\u2019de h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yeniden-enflasyon (reflation) d\u00f6neminin sona erdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve BoJ\u2019u destekledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan bu mesaj g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Japonya, 30 Nisan\u201327 May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde rekor 11,73 trilyon Yen tutar\u0131nda Yen al\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi; ard\u0131ndan Temmuz sonu yeniden m\u00fcdahale geldi ve bu kez ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da s\u00fcrece kat\u0131ld\u0131. Bir sonraki koordineli ileti\u015fim ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 12\u201318 Ekim\u2019de Bangkok\u2019ta yap\u0131lacak IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Odak, 23:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos \u00fccret verilerinde; beklenti y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,7 (\u00f6nceki %4,7). Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 izlenecek. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde diren\u00e7 158,50 ard\u0131ndan 159,00 seviyelerinde; destek ise 157,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan 157,00\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI 83 civar\u0131nda. 157,00 alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kurguyu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n\n

Key Levels and Upcoming Data Drivers<\/h3>\n\n

USD\/JPY\u2019de parite dar bir bantta konsolide olurken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 158,00 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. BoJ\u2019un Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken, vadeli piyasalarda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu anda yaln\u0131zca %25 fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu tablo, yakla\u015fan makro verilerin piyasa beklentisinden sapmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde oynakl\u0131\u011fa geni\u015f alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak A\u011fustos \u00fccret verileri kritik; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n %4,7\u2019den %3,7\u2019ye yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak Japonya\u2019da nominal \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131, son enflasyonist ivme \u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k yirmi y\u0131l boyunca %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda ortalamaya sahipti; bu nedenle %3 \u00fczerindeki her bask\u0131, yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fime dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Verinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda, piyasada daha agresif bir merkez bankas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla Yen\u2019e h\u0131zl\u0131 destek gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD faiz patikas\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015fan FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 takip edilmeli. ABD ve Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark 300 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da do\u011fal olarak USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Fed\u2019den \u015fahin tonda tutanaklar, bu fark\u0131 daha da a\u00e7arak pariteyi 159,00 direncine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Trading Strategy and Risk Factors<\/h3>\n\n

Taktik a\u00e7\u0131dan, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar 157,50 deste\u011finin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in risk-getiri dengesini elveri\u015fli g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n hedeflerimiz 158,50 ve 159,00; ancak g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik RSI gibi momentum g\u00f6stergeleri, temel bir kataliz\u00f6r olmadan y\u00fckseli\u015fin ivme kaybedebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bununla birlikte, 157,00 alt\u0131nda net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, bu iyimser senaryoyu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131larak Yen lehine bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali \u00fcretecektir.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca 12\u201318 Ekim\u2019de Bangkok\u2019ta yap\u0131lacak IMF toplant\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda olas\u0131 politika m\u00fcdahalesi ve ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamalara haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Japon otoriteler, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda rekor 11,73 trilyon Yen harcayarak zay\u0131f Yen\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde ortaya koydu. Zirve s\u0131ras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel finans otoritelerinden gelebilecek koordineli s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar, paritede h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BoJ Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ueda, ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011flarken USD\/JPY 158 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor. Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %25. Yen savunmas\u0131 sertle\u015fiyor; kritik veri: \u00fccretler, FOMC tutanaklar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69295,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t