{"id":69288,"date":"2026-10-07T03:52:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T03:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/markets-eye-boj-october-report-as-yen-weakens-and-futures-price-one-in-four-hike-odds\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T03:52:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T03:52:32","slug":"markets-eye-boj-october-report-as-yen-weakens-and-futures-price-one-in-four-hike-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/markets-eye-boj-october-report-as-yen-weakens-and-futures-price-one-in-four-hike-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve vadeli i\u015flemlerin d\u00f6rtte bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla, BoJ\u2019un Ekim raporuna odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Gecelik faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan Kazuo Ueda\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edeceklerini s\u00f6ylemesine ra\u011fmen, 30 Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte bir olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Politika fark\u0131 inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131: ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) 16 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %3,75\u2013%4,00\u2019e y\u00fckseltirken BoJ 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; b\u00f6ylece her iki \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k ad\u0131m \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131nda 2,75 puanl\u0131k getiri fark\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmeden kald\u0131. Yen her hamlenin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131; BoJ\u2019un 16 Haziran\u2019da faizi %1\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda USD\/JPY 160,00 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve Temmuz sonuna do\u011fru 164,00\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131na geldi; Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 30 Temmuz\u2019da, ertesi g\u00fcn ABD deste\u011fiyle birlikte piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etmeden \u00f6nce. 18 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 2 oyla ge\u00e7en faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan parite 157,00 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve bir hafta i\u00e7inde 159,00\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Dikkat, BoJ\u2019un 29\u201330 Ekim\u2019de yay\u0131mlayaca\u011f\u0131 rapora kay\u0131yor; piyasalar karar\u0131n kendisinden ziyade h\u0131z konusunda y\u00f6nlendirme arayacak. Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE eyl\u00fclde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; a\u011fustosta %1,8\u2019di ve beklenti %2,4\u2019t\u00fc. Taze g\u0131da ve enerjiyi hari\u00e7 tutan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ise benzin s\u00fcbvansiyonu art\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen %3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 13 ay\u0131n zirvesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Reuters kaynaklar\u0131, raporun, \u00e7ekirdek\/enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %2\u2019ye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tarihe ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini; temmuzdaki Ekim 2026\u2013Mart 2028 d\u00f6nemine yay\u0131lan projeksiyona k\u0131yasla 18 ayl\u0131k pencerenin s\u0131k\u0131\u015fabilece\u011fini belirtti. Vadeli i\u015flemler, ekimde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %26, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar \u201cneredeyse\u201d bir art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funu ve Eyl\u00fcl 2027 itibar\u0131yla politika faizinin %2,02\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n

Teknik Seviyeler ve K\u0131sa Vadeli Yen Dinamikleri<\/h3>\n\n

Bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerindeki kritik merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken USD\/JPY\u2019de 157,00 destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Parite 156,50 ile 159,00 aras\u0131nda konsolide oluyor; 158,00 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n etraf\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yor. 157,00\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 155,00\u2019e do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye ve potansiyel olarak eyl\u00fcl dip seviyesi olan 153,00\u2019e i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasa \u015fu anda 30 Ekim\u2019de BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca %26 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak temel ekonomik veriler politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tokyo\u2019nun \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu, devletin benzin s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen eyl\u00fclde %2,7\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rayarak %2,4\u2019l\u00fck tahminleri rahat bi\u00e7imde a\u015ft\u0131. BoJ\u2019un yakla\u015fan \u00e7eyreklik raporunda kal\u0131c\u0131 %2 enflasyon hedefine ili\u015fkin takvimin \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilmesi, Yen\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n

\u015eu a\u015famada faiz fark\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde Dolar lehine; Fed\u2019in g\u00f6sterge faizi %3,75\u2013%4,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndayken BoJ\u2019un faizi %1,25 seviyesinde. Bu 2,75 puanl\u0131k makas geni\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Yen\u2019i d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli fonlama para birimi olarak kullanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak BoJ, mevcut yava\u015f temponun yerine ocak ve martta arka arkaya faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret ederse, getiri fark\u0131 piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha h\u0131zl\u0131 daralabilir.<\/p>\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n

Etkinlik Riskleri ve T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

BoJ\u2019un planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca iki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce, 28 Ekim\u2019deki Fed politika karar\u0131na da haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131, eyl\u00fclde 29 binlik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini yaln\u0131zca be\u015fte bir civar\u0131nda g\u00f6sterse de Washington\u2019dan gelebilecek olas\u0131 bir s\u00fcrpriz hamle faiz makas\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015ftirecektir. 14 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD enflasyon verisi, bu faiz beklentilerini yeniden \u015fekillendirecek ilk b\u00fcy\u00fck kataliz\u00f6r olacak.<\/p>\n\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik t\u00fcrev stratejilerinde, paritenin 157,00\u2019nin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyon aramay\u0131 ve 153,00\u2019e do\u011fru bir hareketi hedeflemeyi tercih ediyoruz. BoJ, 30 Ekim\u2019de daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m patikas\u0131na i\u015faret etmezse, strateji de\u011fi\u015ftirip 159,00\u2019a ve potansiyel olarak 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklemeliyiz. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 159,00 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi halinde, Yen lehine (USD\/JPY aleyhine) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentimizi ge\u00e7ersiz sayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz kap\u0131da m\u0131? Piyasalar BoJ\u2019un 30 Ekim\u2019de faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %26 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; odak rapordaki \u201ch\u0131z\u201d sinyali. Tokyo enflasyonu s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; USD\/JPY 157 kritik, 159 a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa senaryo de\u011fi\u015fir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69287,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t