EUR\/USD \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri: Temkinli, Bant \u0130\u00e7inde Kalma Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 \u00d6neriliyor<\/p>\n
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EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1255 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n temkinli, bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimsemesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. ABD dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015femi\u015f olsa da, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi %5,29 ile ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor; bu da altta yatan dolar talebinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a kuvvetli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in, 1,1180 destek seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelere al\u0131m emirleri yerle\u015ftirerek band\u0131n al-sat stratejisiyle de\u011ferlendirilmesini ve olas\u0131 ani k\u0131r\u0131lmalara kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 bir sonraki ana tetikleyici konumunda. Piyasa \u015fu anda 27-28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in %78 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faizde pas ge\u00e7meyi fiyatl\u0131yor. Tutanaklar\u0131n beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u015fahin tonda olmas\u0131 halinde, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvesi olan 102,53\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zla yeniden ralli yapmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, haber \u00f6ncesinde y\u00f6nsel risk almak zorunda kalmadan bu potansiyel oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle stratejilerini kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Avrupa Siyasi Riskleri ve Euro \u0130\u00e7in Hedge Stratejileri<\/p>\n
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Avrupa taraf\u0131nda, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 2027 b\u00fct\u00e7esini ge\u00e7irmek i\u00e7in h\u00fck\u00fcmetin verdi\u011fi m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda artan mali risklerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak Fransa\u2019daki siyasi risk y\u00fckseldi\u011finde, Frans\u0131z ve Alman 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor; son d\u00f6nemde 80 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan bu fark Euro \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle, b\u00fct\u00e7e m\u00fczakerelerinin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi halinde olas\u0131 ani a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Euro\u2019da kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spotun alt\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini daha uygun buluyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Hazine tahvil getirilerindeki geri \u00e7ekilmeyle birlikte zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti; ancak Euro\u2019daki kazan\u0131mlar, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n mali pozisyonuna ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Parite 1,1255 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,29 art\u0131da seyretti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %5,25\u2019e do\u011fru gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,29\u2019a toparland\u0131 ve Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen %5,349\u2019luk zirveye (2002\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviye) yak\u0131n kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ula\u015f\u0131lan 102,53\u2019l\u00fck y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 101,87 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan daha zay\u0131f tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve PCE enflasyon verileri, 27-28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmesi gerekti\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131ktan sonra dikkatler ABD para politikas\u0131na kayd\u0131. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %78 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faizde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, Fed\u2019in %2 enflasyon hedefi Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutmaya devam etti; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u015fimdi y\u00f6nlendirme i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 takip ediyor. Avrupa\u2019da ise, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir parlamentoda 2027 b\u00fct\u00e7esi i\u00e7in destek sa\u011flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken, ECB ileti\u015fimi temkinli kald\u0131. Olli Rehn, enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki enflasyon yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederek, y\u00fcksek uzun vadeli faizlerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve fiyat ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi etkilerini bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1255\u2019te: Getiriler 5,29\u2019la dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor, bant i\u00e7i al-sat \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; 1,1180\u2019den al\u0131m izlenebilir. FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve Fransa b\u00fct\u00e7e riski i\u00e7in straddle\/OTM put hedge g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t