Bir bankan\u0131n makro ara\u015ft\u0131rma masas\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019deki son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek petrol ve dizel fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Fransa OAT\u2019lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeniden canlanan endi\u015feyle ili\u015fkilendiriyor. Piyasalar\u0131n kritik tarihler ve Moody\u2019s\u2019in not de\u011ferlendirmesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla, ekim ay\u0131na kadar euronun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak piyasa tepkisini, OAT\u2013Bund spreadindeki benzer geni\u015flemenin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olarak nitelendiriyor. Ekim sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 2027 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck %5 band\u0131nda tutmas\u0131na ve stresin daha geni\u015f bir euro b\u00f6lgesi sorununa yay\u0131lmak yerine OAT\u2019larda yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f kalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Masan\u0131n trend-takip \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, USD rallisinin EUR, GBP, CAD, SEK ve MXN\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cfazla uzam\u0131\u015f\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylerken, G10 FX pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n JPY hari\u00e7 genel olarak USD\u2019de k\u0131sa pozisyona i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtiyor. \u201cKurtulu\u015f G\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d \u00f6ncesi banda do\u011fru hareketin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 yerine, masa opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden EUR\/USD sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tersine (fade) \u00e7evirmeyi hedefliyor. Bu kapsamda 3 ayl\u0131k, s\u0131f\u0131r maliyetli EUR\/USD risk reversal kurdu: 1,1610 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call\u2019da uzun pozisyon; 1,11 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put\u2019ta k\u0131sa pozisyonla finanse edildi ve y\u0131l sonuna y\u00f6nelik \u201cUSD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etmenin bir yolu olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
—<\/p>\n\n
Ekim boyunca kritik mali kararlar ve yakla\u015fan egemen not de\u011ferlendirmeleri aras\u0131nda seyrederken Euro\u2019nun bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ancak bu ge\u00e7ici zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 panik nedeni olarak de\u011fil, al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k 78 baz puan civar\u0131nda seyreden Fransa OAT\u2013Bund getiri fark\u0131ndaki mevcut a\u00e7\u0131lma, h\u00e2l\u00e2 sistemik kriz seviyelerinden uzak.<\/p>\n\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD Dolar\u0131 rallisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00fcresel para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Son pozisyonlanma verileri, Japon Yeni istisnas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda piyasada G10 para birimlerinde Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin net k\u0131sa pozisyona i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, pozisyonlanma bu t\u00fcr a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tek tarafl\u0131 seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman keskin bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 80 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetleri, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fck kurulu\u015flar\u0131n Fransa i\u00e7in yapaca\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015fan egemen not de\u011ferlendirmesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fcksek alarmda tutuyor. Bu yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem bask\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, Fransa 2027 a\u00e7\u0131k hedefini %5 civar\u0131nda tutabildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece bu risklerin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n
—<\/p>\n\n
Bu senaryoda i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n mevcut sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015finden ko\u015fmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun yerine y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru Dolar\u2019da zay\u0131flamaya pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k bir EUR\/USD risk reversal uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz; bu yap\u0131, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satarak finanse edilen, kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) bir call opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erir. Bu opsiyon yap\u0131s\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski y\u00f6netirken Euro\u2019da 1,16 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yakalamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Euro\u2019da alarm zilleri! Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve Fransa OAT endi\u015fesi EUR\/USD\u2019yi ekime kadar bask\u0131layabilir; ancak panik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Banka, USD rallisini \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzam\u0131\u015f\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcp 3 ayl\u0131k s\u0131f\u0131r maliyetli risk reversal ile y\u0131l sonu dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t