USD\/CAD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,15 gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4240 seviyesine indi ve 1,4300 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi. Kanada Dolar\u0131 ise arz\u0131n iyile\u015fece\u011fi beklentileriyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. JPMorgan, Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %98\u2019ine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 17,5 milyon varil olarak hesaplad\u0131 ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 3 milyon varile toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ayr\u0131ca, G7\u2019nin 100 milyon varil dizel ve ham petrol\u00fc piyasaya s\u00fcrme anla\u015fmas\u0131, Kuveyt\u2019in \u00fcretiminin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019i civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmesi ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Asyal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in resmi sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle \u015fekillendi.<\/p>\n\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda, ADP\u2019nin NER Pulse verisi 19 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar olan d\u00f6rt haftada \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fverenlerinin haftal\u0131k ortalama 23,750 bin istihdam ekledi\u011fini (\u00f6nceki 22,50 bin) g\u00f6sterdi. Piyasalar, son d\u00f6nemde gelen daha yumu\u015fak istihdam sinyallerinin ard\u0131ndan Fed politika beklentilerini tart\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019da odak Eyl\u00fcl istihdam verilerine \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda: A\u011fustos\u2019taki -41,7 binin ard\u0131ndan +5,0 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 0,1 puan artarak %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n %65,0 ile de\u011fi\u015fmemesi bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in BoC\u2019nin toplam 100 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlamaya a\u00e7\u0131k k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir alan oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Teknik seviyeler olarak; spot 1,4247 civar\u0131, 100 periyot SMA 1,4244, 200 periyot SMA 1,4203, RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 42; diren\u00e7ler 1,4260 ard\u0131ndan 1,4293; destekler 1,4232, 1,4200\u20131,4175, 1,4150 ve 1,4133 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD\u2019de uzun (long) y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejileri i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite, 1,4300 civar\u0131ndaki son zirvesinden 1,4240\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilse de Kanada Dolar\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temelinde, geleneksel olarak \u201cloonie\u201dnin seyrini belirleyen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki istikrarl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
K\u00fcresel arz\u0131n h\u0131zla toparlanmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; Orta Do\u011fu ham petrol sevkiyatlar\u0131 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin neredeyse %98\u2019ine geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda. G7\u2019nin acil durum stoklar\u0131ndan 100 milyon varil ham petrol ve dizel serbest b\u0131rakma karar\u0131, Brent gibi k\u00fcresel g\u00f6stergelerin kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fcretmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda, artan arz fazlas\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in enerji odakl\u0131 kontratlarda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar ya da USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yakla\u015fan Kanada i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc anketi kritik bir risk unsuru. Beklentiler, A\u011fustos\u2019taki 41,700\u2019l\u00fck sert kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca 5,000 ki\u015filik zay\u0131f bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasada \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7in fiyatlanan 100 baz puanl\u0131k yerel faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisinin, k\u0131r\u0131lgan arka plan g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fazla agresif oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon %2 hedefi civar\u0131nda seyrederken, politika beklentilerinde olas\u0131 g\u00fcvercin bir kayma Kanada dolar\u0131nda sert bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131 haftal\u0131k ortalama istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 23,750\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesiyle \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir h\u0131zlanma g\u00f6sterdi ve bu durum dolar i\u00e7in destekleyici bir tampon sunuyor. Fed temkinli bir patika izlese bile, ABD tahvil getirileri Kanada muadillerine k\u0131yasla diren\u00e7li kal\u0131yor. Getiri fark\u0131ndaki bu a\u00e7\u0131lma, dolar\u0131n Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f (bullish) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 1,4200 ile 1,4232 aras\u0131ndaki destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde USD\/CAD al\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; bu b\u00f6lgede kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 beklenir. 1,4260\u2019taki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1,4293\u2019e do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bu haftan\u0131n kritik istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde volatiliteyi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar veya spot i\u015flemlerde s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol arz\u0131 h\u0131zla toparlan\u0131rken CAD k\u0131r\u0131lgan: USD\/CAD 1,4300\u2019dan 1,4240\u2019a \u00e7ekildi. G7 stok sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, Suudi indirimleri bask\u0131 kuruyor. Kanada istihdam\u0131 ve BoC fiyatlamas\u0131, paritede long senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69271,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69272","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t