{"id":69270,"date":"2026-10-07T02:53:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T02:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/weak-us-payrolls-dent-october-fed-hike-odds-shifting-focus-to-september-cpi-and-dollar-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T02:53:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T02:53:14","slug":"weak-us-payrolls-dent-october-fed-hike-odds-shifting-focus-to-september-cpi-and-dollar-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/weak-us-payrolls-dent-october-fed-hike-odds-shifting-focus-to-september-cpi-and-dollar-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri Ekim\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini azaltt\u0131; g\u00f6zler Eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE\u2019si ve dolar g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesi ve \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede hamle yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini so\u011futtu ve 14 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak eyl\u00fcl T\u00dcFE verisine oda\u011f\u0131 kayd\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130stihdam raporu, a\u011fustosta tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamdaki ge\u00e7ici art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, piyasalar\u0131 ekim FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmeye itti.<\/p>\n\n

Bloomberg WIRP, 5 Ekim itibar\u0131yla ekimde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019deki %64 seviyesinden %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken, piyasalar 2026 sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 tamamen fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Analiz, toplant\u0131n\u0131n 3 Kas\u0131m ara se\u00e7imlerine yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle ekimde art arda bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, ilave iki art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc korudu: biri Aral\u0131k 2026\u2019da, di\u011feri 2027 1\u00c7\u2019de; ard\u0131ndan 2027\u2019nin geri kalan\u0131nda sabit tutma beklentisi.<\/p>\n\n

K\u0131sa Vadeli Dolar G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

Beklentilerin aksine zay\u0131f gelen eyl\u00fcl istihdam raporu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc temelden de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %64\u2019ten %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlara uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerine odaklanmak veya daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc maj\u00f6r para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar rallilerini satmak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha iyi risk-getiri oranlar\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Tarihsel olarak, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerindeki benzer sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, tahvil getirilerinde ge\u00e7ici bir so\u011fuma ve hisse senetlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli bir rahatlama rallisini beraberinde getirdi. Benzer makroekonomik de\u011fi\u015fimlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6nemli enflasyon verileri \u00f6ncesindeki g\u00fcnlerde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility) keskin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Belirgin bir y\u00f6n riski almadan beklenen fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Kritik Veri Takvimi ve Daha Uzun Vadeli Dolar Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Bu \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n nihai testi, 14 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak eyl\u00fcl T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi verisi olacak. Man\u015fet enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %2,4 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda gelmesi, ekimde \u201cpas\u201d senaryosunu kuvvetlendirebilir ve dolara y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Bu kritik veri noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rken piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir pozisyonlanma \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n aral\u0131kta ve 2027\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya d\u00f6nmesini beklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n vadeli zay\u0131fl\u0131k uzun vadeli bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnden ziyade ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczeltme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmeli. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, bu ge\u00e7ici geri \u00e7ekilmeyi k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131ndaki politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde daha uzun vadeli dolar y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fed frene mi bast\u0131? Zay\u0131f eyl\u00fcl istihdam\u0131 ekim faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %64\u2019ten %20 alt\u0131na \u00e7ekti; odak 14 Ekim T\u00dcFE\u2019ye kayd\u0131. K\u0131sa vadede dolar zay\u0131f. Straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Uzunda art\u0131r\u0131mlar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69269,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t