NZD\/USD, \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bir y\u0131l\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Pazartesi g\u00f6r\u00fclen 0,5580 dip seviyesi, Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en zay\u0131f d\u00fczeye i\u015faret ediyor. Parite, 2020\u2019den bu yana sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131n\u0131 defalarca frenleyen 0,5580-0,5470 band\u0131ndaki uzun soluklu destek b\u00f6lgesinin yeniden \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda; ancak her toparlanma daha az g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hale geldi: 2021 ba\u015f\u0131nda 0,7400 \u00fczeri g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015fler 2022\u2019de 0,6500\u2019lerin ortas\u0131n\u0131, 2023 ve 2024\u2019te 0,6400 civar\u0131n\u0131 ve daha yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 0,6100 \u00fczerini a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131. Fiyat, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5823\u2019teki d\u00fc\u015fen 100 haftal\u0131k SMA ile 0,5973 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki gerileyen 200 haftal\u0131k SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak daha uzun vadeli e\u011filimin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Taban\u0131n korunmas\u0131 halinde ilk odak 0,6000 seviyesine kay\u0131yor; burada 200 haftal\u0131k SMA yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ard\u0131ndan Ocak ve Haziran 2025 zirveleri olan 0,6100 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. 0,5470 alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma ise daha eski referans seviyelerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r: 0,5200 hedefe girebilir ve ard\u0131ndan 0,5000 psikolojik seviyesi ile 0,5000-0,4900 band\u0131 izlenebilir. Temel bask\u0131 da geni\u015fliyor: NZD, RBNZ\u2019nin OCR\u2019\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,75\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesine ra\u011fmen Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de G10\u2019un en zay\u0131f para birimi olurken, TWI 63,7 ile 15 y\u0131l\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 24 A\u011fustos-29 Eyl\u00fcl aras\u0131nda para birimi USD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %5,1, AUD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %3,1 ve RBNZ sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 %4,6 geriledi. BNZ, kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019ye 0,3 puan ekleyebilece\u011fini ve OCR\u2019\u0131n %3,75\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor; piyasalar ise 28 Ekim\u2019de faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %3,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. 2\u00c7 GSYH \u00e7\/\u00e7 %0,2 ve y\/y %2,6 artarken, NZIER anketi ko\u015fullar\u0131n iyile\u015fmesini bekleyenlerin net oran\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceki %8\u2019den %43\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; T\u00dcFE verisi 21 Ekim\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131 haftad\u0131r s\u00fcren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 0,5580\u2019deki bir y\u0131ll\u0131k dip b\u00f6lgesinin \u00e7evresinde oyalanan Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Bu geri \u00e7ekilme, kuru 2020\u2019den bu yana daha derin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 savunma g\u00f6revi g\u00f6ren 0,5580-0,5470 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesinin e\u015fi\u011fine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu b\u00f6lgeye verilecek tepki, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015flem stratejilerimizi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirleyecek.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik g\u00f6stergeler ay\u0131lar\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde \u00fcst\u00fcn oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; 0,5823\u2019teki 100 haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalama ile 0,5973\u2019teki 200 haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalama a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli. Bu destek seviyesinden gelen tarihsel her tepki bir \u00f6ncekinden daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131; son birka\u00e7 y\u0131lda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tepelerden olu\u015fan belirgin bir yap\u0131 olu\u015ftu. 0,5470 alt\u0131nda haftal\u0131k bir kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, yap\u0131sal bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya i\u015faret ederek 0,5200\u2019deki 2008 finansal kriz d\u00f6nemi diplerine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n
Temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, Yeni Zelanda Ticaret A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Endeksi\u2019nin (TWI) 63,7 ile 15 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilemesi d\u00e2hil daha geni\u015f makro verilerle de destekleniyor. MOVE endeksindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fle izlenen k\u00fcresel tahvil oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, Kiwi gibi risk hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek para birimlerini de bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, Hazine tahvili oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli limanlara y\u00f6nelmesiyle h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclme e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n\n
Bu ay iki \u00f6nemli takvim ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. \u0130lk olarak 21 Ekim\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek enflasyon verisi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; hemen ard\u0131ndan 28 Ekim\u2019de merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika karar\u0131 gelecek. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, faizin 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak %3,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada %58 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da k\u0131sa vadede sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n\n
Destek b\u00f6lgesinin korunmas\u0131 halinde, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesindeki pozisyonlarda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n k\u00e2r realizasyonuna gitmesiyle teknik bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. 0,5470\u2019in ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde savunulmas\u0131, pariteyi 0,6000 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru geri itebilir; burada gerileyen 200 haftal\u0131k hareketli ortalama g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Uzun y\u00f6nl\u00fc f\u0131rsat arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, pozisyon a\u00e7madan \u00f6nce g\u00fcnl\u00fck ya da haftal\u0131k grafiklerde net bir fiyat reddi mum formasyonu g\u00f6rmeyi beklemesi daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, 0,5470 alt\u0131nda kararl\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma uzun vadeli trendde \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fimi teyit eder. Bu senaryoda 0,5200 civar\u0131ndaki tarihsel destek seviyeleri ve nihayetinde 0,5000 hedefi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Getiri farklar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fime ve k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131na y\u00fcksek duyarl\u0131l\u0131k nedeniyle, s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes disiplininin risk y\u00f6netiminde kritik olaca\u011f\u0131 unutulmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kivi\u2019de alarm zilleri: NZD\/USD alt\u0131 haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,5580\u2019de bir y\u0131l\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n. 0,5580-0,5470 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,5200-0,5000 g\u00fcndemde; korunursa 0,6000-0,6100 tepkisi. RBNZ, T\u00dcFE ve oynakl\u0131k izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t