{"id":69259,"date":"2026-10-07T01:57:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T01:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/td-securities-sees-fed-hikes-delayed-to-2026-27-as-dollar-upside-capped-amid-crowded-g10-shorts\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T01:57:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T01:57:10","slug":"td-securities-sees-fed-hikes-delayed-to-2026-27-as-dollar-upside-capped-amid-crowded-g10-shorts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-sees-fed-hikes-delayed-to-2026-27-as-dollar-upside-capped-amid-crowded-g10-shorts\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, G10\u2019da kalabal\u0131k k\u0131sa pozisyonlar nedeniyle dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n 2026-27\u2019ye ertelendi\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities, ABD ekonomisi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nmadan diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bunun da Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini Aral\u0131k 2026 ve Mart 2027\u2019ye \u00f6telemesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor. Kurum ayr\u0131ca, piyasada Fed \u015fahinli\u011finin fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen zirve yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in halihaz\u0131rda fiyatlanan art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funu savunuyor; bu durumun yaln\u0131zca veri ve politika kanal\u0131 \u00fczerinden USD i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sinyaller \u00fcretme alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

\u015eirket, Fed\u2019in \u00e7eyreklik bir tempoda hareket etmesini bekliyor ve son ABD verilerinin, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 \u00fczerinden dolara ek destek sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in faizlerin \u00e7eyrekte birden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Buna ra\u011fmen, skor kart\u0131nda USD\u2019yi; elveri\u015fli faiz farklar\u0131, diren\u00e7li b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hisse performans\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek ilk s\u0131raya koyuyor. MRSI\u2019nin uzun dolar pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00e2rl\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fi, daha geni\u015f piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131n da art\u0131k dolar uzun tarafa d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili G10 para birimlerinde\u2014\u00f6zellikle SEK, CAD ve NZD\u2014k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n kalabal\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n

ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in Temkinli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na temkinli yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira para biriminin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yor. ABD ekonomisi dikkat \u00e7ekici bi\u00e7imde diren\u00e7li kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de; GSYH\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,5\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1\u2019de sabit seyretmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 art\u0131k a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 ancak enflasyonist olmayan bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme, Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmadan ka\u00e7\u0131naca\u011f\u0131na ve Dolar\u2019\u0131n dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye devam edece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k 2026 ve Mart 2027\u2019ye kadar faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmemesini bekliyoruz; bu da piyasan\u0131n \u015fahin fiyatlamas\u0131nda zirvenin geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u0130ki y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil getirisinin %4,0 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, getiriler kaynakl\u0131 yeni bir \u201cgreenback\u201d rallisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyelden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) ana diren\u00e7 seviyelerine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu yazarak strateji kurmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n

Kalabal\u0131kla\u015fan G10 K\u0131sa Pozisyonlar\u0131nda F\u0131rsatlar<\/h3>\n\n

Dolar, b\u00fcy\u00fcme farklar\u0131n\u0131n lehine olmas\u0131 nedeniyle i\u00e7 metriklerimizde en y\u00fcksek skoru korusa da, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili G10 para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar son derece kalabal\u0131k hale geldi. \u00d6rne\u011fin, g\u00fcncel borsa\/veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, Kanada Dolar\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019nda net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da s\u00f6z konusu para birimlerini ani \u201cshort squeeze\u201d hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131l\u0131yor. Olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri yakalamak i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla bu g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli para birimlerinde taktiksel uzun pozisyonlar al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

USD rallisinin pe\u015finden ko\u015fmak yerine, maj\u00f6r dolar paritelerinde bant stratejileri kullanarak beklenen konsolidasyondan getiri elde edilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, Fed \u00e7eyreklik ya da daha yava\u015f bir ayarlama temposuna ge\u00e7ti\u011finde kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011fine ge\u00e7erken pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131n muhafazak\u00e2r tutulmas\u0131; geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 dolar g\u00fcc\u00fc temas\u0131ndan ziyade g\u00f6reli de\u011fer (relative value) i\u015flemlerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz: Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi zirve yapm\u0131\u015f olabilir. TD Securities, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama \u0131s\u0131nmayan ABD verilerinin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Aral\u0131k 2026\u2013Mart 2027\u2019ye itti\u011fini; dolar momentumunun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, G10 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kalabal\u0131k oldu\u011funu vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69258,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t