ABD hisseleri, S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,66 y\u00fckseli\u015fle kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu; endeks 7.800 seviyesine do\u011fru t\u0131rmanarak, 13 A\u011fustos\u2019ta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 7.816,70 ile belirlenen rekoruna yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemlerdeki fiyatlama, yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5\u2019lik bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015fine i\u015faret ediyor; Yapay zeka temal\u0131 hisselerde al\u0131mlar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle endeksin 7.800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. AAII Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 Duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Anketi\u2019nden gelen pozisyonlanma verileri, %34,6 iyimser (bullish) kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 %46,5 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser (bearish) kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6stererek, perakende yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 psikolojisinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasalarda, S&P 500 vadeli kontrat\u0131 7.800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinden i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek yeni zirveleri test etti; diren\u00e7 7.900, destek ise 7.800\u20137.820 band\u0131 olarak belirtildi. Genel tablo kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc: Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri \u201cr\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 tersine \u00e7eviren\u201d unsurlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, kredi verme kaynakl\u0131 endi\u015felerin hafifleyebilece\u011fine dair beklentiler de g\u00fcndemdeydi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, kaynakta at\u0131f yap\u0131lan bir volatilite k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m sistemi k\u0131sa (short) pozisyondayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 7.800 seviyesinin \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir atak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu hareketin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, yapay zeka hisselerindeki kesintisiz y\u00fckseli\u015f. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, 13 A\u011fustos\u2019taki 7.816,70 rekorunun a\u015f\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir. Piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcn daha yukar\u0131dan a\u00e7mas\u0131 beklenirken, 7.800 ile 7.820 aras\u0131ndaki yak\u0131n destek b\u00f6lgesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u015ea\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde, bireysel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde \u015f\u00fcpheci kal\u0131yor: En g\u00fcncel perakende duyarl\u0131l\u0131k anketleri, iyimser olanlar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %34,6\u2019da kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %46,5\u2019inin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak, piyasa yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m ya\u015farken bu denli yo\u011fun k\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kar\u015f\u0131t (contrarian) bir g\u00f6sterge olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r; a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f yapanlar\u0131n pozisyon kapatmaya zorlanmas\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 itebilir. Bu \u015f\u00fcphecili\u011fin, piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki ana diren\u00e7 seviyesi olan 7.900\u2019\u00fc hedeflemesi i\u00e7in gereken momentumu sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, b\u00fcy\u00fcyen makroekonomik bask\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz; \u00f6zellikle Ortado\u011fu geriliminin s\u00fcrmesiyle Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi yak\u0131n zamanda yeniden %4,0 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu durum genellikle hisse de\u011ferlemeleri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Opsiyon kullanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ani jeopolitik \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 uzun (long) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Endeks vadeli i\u015flemleri veya di\u011fer t\u00fcrev kontratlarda i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in, k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m i\u015flemlerinde riski y\u00f6netmek amac\u0131yla 7.800 deste\u011finin hemen alt\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri konulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Endeks 7.800\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde tutunamazsa, bu durum sahte k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131ma ve yerel bir piyasa tepesinin olu\u015fumuna i\u015faret edebilir. Piyasa 7.900\u2019e do\u011fru bu hamleyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fine net bi\u00e7imde karar verene kadar, pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin ola\u011fan\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Duvar gibi endi\u015feye ra\u011fmen S&P 500 rekor e\u015fi\u011finde: Vadeli i\u015flemler %0,5 art\u0131\u015fla 7.800 \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc hedefliyor, yapay zek\u00e2 rallisi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. 7.900 diren\u00e7, 7.800-7.820 destek; petrol\/tahvil risk. AAII\u2019de ay\u0131lar %46,5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t