{"id":69243,"date":"2026-10-06T10:56:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dollar-demand-lifts-usd-jpy-above-158-as-boj-caution-offsets-japan-intervention-risk\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T10:56:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:56:42","slug":"dollar-demand-lifts-usd-jpy-above-158-as-boj-caution-offsets-japan-intervention-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dollar-demand-lifts-usd-jpy-above-158-as-boj-caution-offsets-japan-intervention-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar talebi USD\/JPY\u2019yi 158\u2019in \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riski BoJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015fuyla dengeleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselerek 158,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 talebi, olas\u0131 Japon m\u00fcdahalesine y\u00f6nelik endi\u015felerin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti. Daha geni\u015f resimde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Greenback lehine kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; Ekim ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olsa da USD Endeksi (DXY) Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Son ABD verileri enflasyonda so\u011fumaya ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yumu\u015famaya i\u015faret ederken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan diren\u00e7li ihracat ve G7\u2019nin acil stok serbest b\u0131rakmas\u0131 arz endi\u015felerini hafifletti\u011fi i\u00e7in petrol d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. Bu tablo, daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik alg\u0131lanan bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 %85\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; y\u00fcksek ABD tahvil getirileri ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekliyor. Yen ise, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidece\u011fi beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; kaynaklar, baz\u0131 politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bir konu\u015fma de\u011ferlendirmesi 7,2\/10 puan ald\u0131; yetkililer de enflasyonu %2 civar\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131palamay\u0131 hedefleyen kademeli patikay\u0131 yineledi. Teknik seviyelerde 157,47 ve 158,73 diren\u00e7; 156,99, 156,58, 155,70, 154,61 ve 152,84 destek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131na ve kilit komite \u00fcyelerinin de\u011ferlendirmelerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n

USD Endeksi G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Makroekonomik Etkenler<\/h3>\n\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu durum USD\/JPY paritesi \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Kurun 158,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n 158,73\u2019teki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu seviyelerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira Greenback\u2019te s\u00fcregelen al\u0131mlar, piyasadaki ani h\u00fck\u00fcmet m\u00fcdahalesi korkusunu bask\u0131lamaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi, kal\u0131c\u0131 getiri fark\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi %4,0 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam duruyor. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde so\u011fuma sinyalleri g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine ra\u011fmen, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019in bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131na ya da ilave art\u0131\u015fa gidece\u011fine dair %85 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu makro ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli kontrat ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7in uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politika Duru\u015fu ve Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n\n

Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda BoJ son derece temkinli kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu ay yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 uygulamakta isteksiz oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2 hedefi civar\u0131nda kalsa da, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kademeli yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 para biriminde yak\u0131n vadede anlaml\u0131 bir toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Yen\u2019i y\u00fcksek getirili Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda temel olarak zay\u0131f b\u0131rakan bu yava\u015f politika de\u011fi\u015fimini fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 156,99 civar\u0131ndaki 100-periyot Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019ya do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 aranabilir; bu seviye ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00f6nemli Fibonacci destekleriyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 158,73 \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, psikolojik 160,00 e\u015fi\u011fine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Bununla birlikte, ani oynakl\u0131k riskine kar\u015f\u0131 dikkatli olunmal\u0131; Japon maliye yetkililerinden beklenmedik s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahale, fiyatlar\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak 155,70 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar\/Yen 158 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunuyor: M\u00fcdahale korkusu \u015fimdilik geri planda. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc DXY ve y\u00fcksek ABD tahvil getirileri pariteyi desteklerken BoJ\u2019un temkinli duru\u015fu Yeni zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; g\u00f6zler FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69242,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t