{"id":69237,"date":"2026-10-06T10:53:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:53:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rupee-slides-as-soaring-us-yields-and-equity-outflows-lift-usd-inr-ahead-of-rbi-decision\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T10:53:41","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:53:41","slug":"rupee-slides-as-soaring-us-yields-and-equity-outflows-lift-usd-inr-ahead-of-rbi-decision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupee-slides-as-soaring-us-yields-and-equity-outflows-lift-usd-inr-ahead-of-rbi-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri ve hisse senedi \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n RBI karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/INR\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu hareket USD\/INR paritesini 96,43 seviyesine, iki aydan uzun s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 5,35 civar\u0131nda yirmi y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n bir seviyeyi test etmesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,24 art\u0131\u015fla 5,32 d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu t\u00fcr bir hamle piyasalarda genellikle riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131, hisse senetlerinden \u00e7\u0131kan fonlarla da artt\u0131; Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (FII), Ekim\u2019in ilk iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 14.183,36 crore rupi tutar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

ABD getirileri aylard\u0131r y\u00fckseliyor; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutabilece\u011fi endi\u015feleri bu y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha zay\u0131f Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verileri, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na dair beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesine yol a\u00e7sa da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim devam etti. \u015eimdi g\u00f6zler Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) para politikas\u0131 karar\u0131nda; piyasa yorumlar\u0131, faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 beklentisi etraf\u0131nda \u015fekillenirken, d\u00f6ng\u00fc boyunca toplam 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f projeksiyonu ve 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir risk senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Grafiklerde USD\/INR, 95,91\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde 96,42 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 68,07 seviyesinde yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

T\u00fcrev \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi ve Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/INR paritesinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi korumas\u0131n\u0131 ve paritenin 96,43 civar\u0131ndaki kritik zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi ortamda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam etmesini hedeflemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum, 95,91\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flam bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor; bu da geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken bu momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (long call) veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerinden yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Yak\u0131n zamanda 5,35 ile yirmi y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yakla\u015fan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizlerindeki durmak bilmeyen y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ortam\u0131n\u0131 beslemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu faiz s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131 bazl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha cazip hale getirerek geli\u015fen piyasalardan sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131yor ve Hindistan rupisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak ABD getirileri %5 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterdi\u011finde, geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimleri uzun soluklu de\u011fer kayb\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcleriyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Sermaye Ak\u0131mlar\u0131, Politika Beklentileri ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n

Hindistan hisse senetlerinden ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Yabanc\u0131 Kurumsal Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Ekim ay\u0131n\u0131n sadece ilk iki i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde 14.183,36 crore rupi gibi \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bir tutarda sat\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bu yo\u011fun kurumsal sat\u0131\u015f, yerel para birimi \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bask\u0131 olu\u015ftururken spot piyasada ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131sal bir talep yarat\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, Hindistan endeks vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131 USD\/INR\u2019de uzun (long) pozisyonlarla birlikte ta\u015f\u0131mak, y\u00fcksek etkili bir korelasyon i\u015flemi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n

RBI\u2019nin yakla\u015fan toplant\u0131da faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 yayg\u0131n beklenti olsa da, politika s\u00f6yleminde \u015fahin bir kayma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Piyasa tahminleri, y\u00fckselen enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 gibi erken bir tarihten itibaren ba\u015flayabilecek 50\u201375 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa bu agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri ile kur opsiyonlar\u0131nda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa dikkat etmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n

G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine ra\u011fmen, g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 68,07 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131yoruz. Bu, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da 95,91\u2019deki destek seviyesine do\u011fru k\u0131sa vadeli bir teknik d\u00fczeltme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yerel zirvelerde piyasay\u0131 kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131; bunun yerine k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmeler s\u0131ras\u0131nda olu\u015fan giri\u015f noktalar\u0131na odaklanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD tahvil getirilerindeki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f ve FII sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 rupiyi bask\u0131lad\u0131: USD\/INR 96,43 ile iki ay\u0131n zirvesinde. G\u00f6zler RBI\u2019de; faiz sabit, \u015fahin ton 50\u201375 bp riskini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69236,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t