{"id":69233,"date":"2026-10-06T10:51:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:51:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/gold-holds-above-4100-as-firm-dollar-and-high-treasury-yields-weigh-ahead-of-fomc-minutes\/"},"modified":"2026-10-06T10:51:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-06T10:51:42","slug":"gold-holds-above-4100-as-firm-dollar-and-high-treasury-yields-weigh-ahead-of-fomc-minutes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/gold-holds-above-4100-as-firm-dollar-and-high-treasury-yields-weigh-ahead-of-fomc-minutes\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fcksek Hazine tahvil getirileri, FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken alt\u0131n 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine dokunduktan sonra Avrupa seans\u0131na m\u00fctevaz\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131plarla girse de 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 talebi bask\u0131larken, Ekim ay\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na h\u00e2l\u00e2 %85\u2019in \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7erken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 aya ili\u015fkin faiz beklentileri 86 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor; bu rakam ge\u00e7en hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 100 baz puandan gerilerken, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen 70 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu ihracat\u0131 ve G7\u2019nin acil stok sal\u0131m\u0131 sayesinde d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n seyreden petrol de Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletti.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik riskler ve y\u00fcksek ABD tahvil getirileri, dolar\u0131 Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n tuttu; bu durum k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Husiler, Suudi Arabistan, \u0130srail ve \u0130ran\u2019a ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeler de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Odak \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve FOMC \u00fcyelerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na \u00e7evriliyor. Teknik tarafta MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken RSI 38\u2019e yak\u0131n; 4.098 dolar\u0131n (78,6% Fibonacci) alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma 3.936 dolar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Diren\u00e7ler ise 4.226, 4.254, 4.316; ard\u0131ndan 4.406, 4.517 ve 4.696 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n

Kal\u0131c\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 G\u00fcc\u00fc ve Makro Kaynakl\u0131 A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc Riskler<\/h3>\n\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, kritik 4.100 dolarl\u0131k destek seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Hazine tahvil getirilerinin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirvelere yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131yla beslenen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki durmak bilmeyen g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, kayda de\u011fer y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam ediyor. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli bir duraklama ge\u00e7ici bir tampon sa\u011flasa da, daha geni\u015f makro e\u011filim belirgin bi\u00e7imde ay\u0131lar\u0131n lehine.<\/p>\n\n

Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, reel getiriler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde zorlan\u0131r. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmesiyle, getiri sunmayan k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Benzer agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin 2022 sonundaki d\u00f6ng\u00fcde\u2014alt\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flam bir yap\u0131sal taban bulmadan \u00f6nce %12\u2019nin \u00fczerinde geriledi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyoruz. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, y\u0131l bitmeden bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 %85 olarak yans\u0131t\u0131yor; bu da de\u011ferli metaller \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n

Jeopolitik Riskler, Teknik Seviyeler ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler\u2014aktif b\u00f6lgesel \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve olas\u0131 t\u0131rmanma riskleri dahil\u2014genellikle alt\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikler. Ancak mevcut tabloda, bu jeopolitik risk primlerinin h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan emildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu dinamik, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131ndaki ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalaca\u011f\u0131na; yeni bir bo\u011fa ko\u015fusunun ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan ziyade, taktik i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in daha iyi sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

78,6% Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesine denk gelen 4.098 dolardaki ilk deste\u011fin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu taban\u0131n alt\u0131nda net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, bir sonraki ana yap\u0131sal hedef olan 3.936 dolar civar\u0131na do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc h\u0131zlanmay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Di\u011fer yandan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama rallisi olu\u015fursa, 4.226\u20134.254 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki ilk diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seviyelerde k\u0131sa pozisyon aramay\u0131 tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131mlanmas\u0131, i\u015flem y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izlenecek kritik kataliz\u00f6r olacak. Bu yay\u0131n etraf\u0131nda volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu nedenle t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm alt\u0131n kontratlar\u0131nda risk y\u00f6netimi parametrelerini s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu hafta merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinden gelecek konu\u015fmalar da piyasan\u0131n \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafife al\u0131p almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 netle\u015ftirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda alarm zilleri: XAU\/USD 4.100 \u00fczerinde tutunuyor ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fcksek tahvil getirileri bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 4.098 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 3.936 g\u00fcndemde; g\u00f6zler FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t